Trends in income and price elasticities of transport demand (1850–2010)
The purpose of this paper is to estimate trends in income and price elasticities and to offer insights for the future growth in transport use, with particular emphasis on the impact of energy and technological transitions. The results indicate that income and price elasticities of passenger transport demand in the United Kingdom were very large (3.1 and −1.5, respectively) in the mid-nineteenth century, and declined since then. In 2010, long run income and price elasticity of aggregate land transport demand were estimated to be 0.8 and −0.6. These trends suggest that future elasticities related to transport demand in developed economies may decline very gradually and, in developing economies, where elasticities are often larger, they will probably decline more rapidly as the economies develop. Because of the declining trends in elasticities, future energy and technological transitions are not likely to generate the growth rates in energy consumption that occurred following transitions in the nineteenth century. Nevertheless, energy and technological transitions, such as the car and the airplane, appear to have delayed and probably will delay declining trends in income and price elasticity of aggregate transport demand.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Leunig, Timothy, 2006.
"Time is Money: A Re-Assessment of the Passenger Social Savings from Victorian British Railways,"
The Journal of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(03), pages 635-673, September.
- Tim Leunig, 2005. "Time is money: a re-assessment of the passenger social savings from Victorian British railways," Economic History Working Papers 22551, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
- Kilian, Lutz & Murphy, Daniel P, 2010.
"The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7753, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, 04.
- Robert Allen & Robert C. Allen, 2007. "Pessimism Preserved: Real Wages in the British Industrial Revolution," Economics Series Working Papers 314, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Roger Fouquet, 2010.
"The Slow Search for Solutions: Lessons from Historical Energy Transitions by Sector and Service,"
- Fouquet, Roger, 2010. "The slow search for solutions: Lessons from historical energy transitions by sector and service," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6586-6596, November.
- Selvanathan, E. A. & Selvanathan, Saroja, 1994. "The demand for transport and communication in the United Kingdom and Australia," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-9, February.
- Grubler, Arnulf & Nakicenovic, Nebojsa & Victor, David G., 1999. "Dynamics of energy technologies and global change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 247-280, May.
- Fouquet, Roger & Pearson, Peter & Hawdon, David & Robinson, Colin & Stevens, Paul, 1997. "The future of UK final user energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 231-240, February.
- A. Greening, Lorna & Greene, David L. & Difiglio, Carmen, 2000. "Energy efficiency and consumption -- the rebound effect -- a survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6-7), pages 389-401, June.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
- Tom Doan, . "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bent Nielsen, 2001.
"Order determination in general vector autoregressions,"
2001-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Bent Nielsen, 2001. "Order determination in general vector autoregressions," Economics Series Working Papers 2001-W10, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Ramanathan, R., 1999. "Short- and long-run elasticities of gasoline demand in India: An empirical analysis using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 321-330, August.
- Christopher Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2006.
"Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand,"
625, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2008. "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 113-134.
- Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2006. "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," NBER Working Papers 12530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
- Richard B. Howarth, 1997. "Energy Efficiency And Economic Growth," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(4), pages 1-9, October.
- Alessio Moneta & Andreas Chai, 2010. "The evolution of Engel curves and its implications for structural change," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201009, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
- Roger Fouquet, 2011. "Divergences in Long-Run Trends in the Prices of Energy and Energy Services," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(2), pages 196-218, Summer.
- Kenneth A. Small & Kurt Van Dender, 2006.
"Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect,"
050603, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
- Kenneth A. Small & Kurt Van Dender, 2007. "Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-52.
- Haas, Reinhard & Nakicenovic, Nebojsa & Ajanovic, Amela & Faber, Thomas & Kranzl, Lukas & Müller, Andreas & Resch, Gustav, 2008. "Towards sustainability of energy systems: A primer on how to apply the concept of energy services to identify necessary trends and policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4012-4021, November.
- Tae H. Oum & Waters, W.G. & Jong Say Yong, 1990. "A survey of recent estimates of price elasticities of demand for transport," Policy Research Working Paper Series 359, The World Bank.
- Roger Fouquet & Peter J.G. Pearson, 2012.
"The Long Run Demand for Lighting:Elasticities and Rebound Effects in Different Phases of Economic Development,"
Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
- Roger Fouquet & Peter J.G Pearson, 2011. "The Long Run Demand for Lighting: Elasticities and Rebound Effects in Different Phases of Economic Development," Working Papers 2011-06, BC3.
- Broadberry, Stephen; Campbell, Bruce; Klein, Alexander; Overton, Mark; Van Leeuwen, Bas., 2010. "English Economic Growth: 1270 - 1870," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 35, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
- Bentzen, Jan, 1994. "An empirical analysis of gasoline demand in Denmark using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 139-143, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:50:y:2012:i:c:p:62-71. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.