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Trends in income and price elasticities of transport demand (1850–2010)

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  • Fouquet, Roger

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to estimate trends in income and price elasticities and to offer insights for the future growth in transport use, with particular emphasis on the impact of energy and technological transitions. The results indicate that income and price elasticities of passenger transport demand in the United Kingdom were very large (3.1 and −1.5, respectively) in the mid-nineteenth century, and declined since then. In 2010, long run income and price elasticity of aggregate land transport demand were estimated to be 0.8 and −0.6. These trends suggest that future elasticities related to transport demand in developed economies may decline very gradually and, in developing economies, where elasticities are often larger, they will probably decline more rapidly as the economies develop. Because of the declining trends in elasticities, future energy and technological transitions are not likely to generate the growth rates in energy consumption that occurred following transitions in the nineteenth century. Nevertheless, energy and technological transitions, such as the car and the airplane, appear to have delayed and probably will delay declining trends in income and price elasticity of aggregate transport demand.

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  • Fouquet, Roger, 2012. "Trends in income and price elasticities of transport demand (1850–2010)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 62-71.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:50:y:2012:i:c:p:62-71
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.03.001
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    2. Thomas, Brinda A. & Azevedo, Inês L., 2013. "Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for U.S. households with input–output analysis. Part 2: Simulation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 188-198.
    3. Sorrell, Steve, 2015. "Reducing energy demand: A review of issues, challenges and approaches," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 74-82.
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    5. Jorge, Diana & Molnar, Goran & de Almeida Correia, Gonçalo Homem, 2015. "Trip pricing of one-way station-based carsharing networks with zone and time of day price variations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 461-482.
    6. Lecca, Patrizio & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim & Turner, Karen, 2014. "The added value from a general equilibrium analysis of increased efficiency in household energy use," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 51-62.
    7. Elizabeth Baldwin & Yongyang Cai & Karlygash Kuralbayeva, 2018. "To Build or Not to Build? Capital Stocks and Climate Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 6884, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Lo, Winnie Wai Ling & Wan, Yulai & Zhang, Anming, 2015. "Empirical estimation of price and income elasticities of air cargo demand: The case of Hong Kong," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 309-324.
    9. Saunders, Harry D., 2014. "Toward a neoclassical theory of sustainable consumption: Eight golden age propositions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 220-232.
    10. Avner, Paolo & Rentschler, Jun & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2014. "Carbon price efficiency : lock-in and path dependence in urban forms and transport infrastructure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6941, The World Bank.
    11. Thomas, Brinda A. & Azevedo, Inês L., 2013. "Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for U.S. households with input–output analysis Part 1: Theoretical framework," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 199-210.
    12. Yalan Zhao & Yaoqiu Kuang & Ningsheng Huang, 2016. "Decomposition Analysis in Decoupling Transport Output from Carbon Emissions in Guangdong Province, China," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(4), pages 1-23, April.
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    14. Harry D. Saunders, 2015. "Recent Evidence for Large Rebound: Elucidating the Drivers and their Implications for Climate Change Models," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).

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