IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-04433059.html

On the Volatility of WTI Crude Oil Prices: A Time-Varying Approach with Stochastic Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • T.-H. Le
  • Sabri Boubaker

    (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School)

  • M.T. Bui
  • D. Park

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of crude oil-market-specific fundamental factors and financial indicators on the realized volatility of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price. A time-varying parameter vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) is applied to weekly data series spanning January 2008 to October 2021. It is found that the WTI oil price volatility responds positively to a shock in oil production, oil inventories, the US dollar index, and VIX but negatively to a shock in the US economic activity. The response to the EPU index was initially positive and then turned slightly negative before fading away. The VIX index has the most significant effect. Furthermore, the time-varying nature of the response of the WTI realized oil price volatility is evident. Extreme effects materialize during economic recessions and crises, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings can improve our understanding of the time-varying nature and determinants of WTI oil price volatility. \textcopyright 2022

Suggested Citation

  • T.-H. Le & Sabri Boubaker & M.T. Bui & D. Park, 2023. "On the Volatility of WTI Crude Oil Prices: A Time-Varying Approach with Stochastic Volatility," Post-Print hal-04433059, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04433059
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106474
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Naqvi, Bushra & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas, 2023. "Shanghai crude oil futures: Returns Independence, volatility asymmetry, and hedging potential," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Hamza, Taher & Ben Haj Hamida, Hayet & Mili, Mehdi & Sami, Mina, 2024. "High inflation during Russia–Ukraine war and financial market interaction: Evidence from C-Vine Copula and SETAR models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    3. Xu, Zhiwei & Gan, Shiqi & Hua, Xia & Xiong, Yujie, 2024. "Can the sentiment of the official media predict the return volatility of the Chinese crude oil futures?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Sun, Chuanwang & Peng, Yiqi & Zhan, Yanhong, 2023. "How does China's crude oil futures affect the crude oil prices at home and abroad? Evidence from the cross-market exchange rate spillovers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 204-222.
    5. Baruník, Jozef & Vácha, Lukáš, 2024. "Predicting the volatility of major energy commodity prices: The dynamic persistence model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Khurshid, Adnan & Khan, Khalid & Rauf, Abdur & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier, 2024. "Effect of geopolitical risk on resources prices in the global and Russian-Ukrainian context: A novel Bayesian structural model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Mao, Yaqi & Yu, Xiaobing & Liu, Jia & Wang, Feng & Zhang, Aixin & Zhu, Junhua, 2025. "Disentangling market drivers and macro uncertainty risks in crude oil futures pricing: A multi-scale quantile regression and causal forest approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    8. Harrison, Andre & Liu, Xiaochun & Stewart, Shamar L., 2023. "Structural sources of oil market volatility and correlation dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Liao, Xin & Li, Qin & Chan, Stephen & Chu, Jeffrey & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2024. "Interconnections and contagion among cryptocurrencies, DeFi, NFT and traditional financial assets: Some new evidence from tail risk driven network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 647(C).
    10. Fayc{c}al Djebari & Kahina Mehidi & Khelifa Mazouz & Philipp Otto, 2025. "Forecasting Oil Volatility through Network Models with GARCH-Informed Correlation Weights," Papers 2507.15046, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    11. Yan, Zichun & Wu, Chaonan & Zhang, Jingjia & Wang, Zehan & Lađevac, Ivona, 2024. "Asymmetric impact of energy prices on financial cycles based on interval time series modeling," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    12. Pham, Quyen & Pham, Huy & Pham, Tra & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2025. "Revisiting the role of investor sentiment in the stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    13. Gurdip Bakshi & Xiaohui Gao & Zhaowei Zhang, 2024. "What Insights Do Short-Maturity (7DTE) Return Predictive Regressions Offer about Risk Preferences in the Oil Market?," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-23, May.
    14. He, Zhifang & Qian, Wanchuan & Miftah, Badir & Zoynul Abedin, Mohammad, 2025. "Quantile time-frequency spillovers among climate policy uncertainty, energy markets, and stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    15. He, Zhifang & Dong, Tianqi & Qian, Wanchuan & Xu, Wei, 2024. "Dynamic interactions among trade policy uncertainty, climate policy uncertainty, and crude oil prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    16. Liang, Jinhua & Ullah, Inam, 2024. "Analysis of crude oil and gold price volatility and their correlation during socio-economic crises," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    17. Harasheh, Murad & Bouteska, Ahmed, 2025. "Volatility estimation through stochastic processes: Evidence from cryptocurrencies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).
    18. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem & Oloko, Tirimisiyu O., 2024. "Technology shocks and crude oil market connection: The role of climate change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    19. Che, Ming & Wang, Li & Li, Yujia, 2024. "Global economic policy uncertainty and oil price uncertainty: Which is more important for global economic activity?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    20. Ren, Xiaohang & He, Yue & Liu, Chuanwang & Tao, Lizhu, 2025. "Extreme risk spillovers between SC, WTI and Brent crude oil futures-Evidence from time-varying Granger causality test," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    21. Anna Gainetdinova & Kazi Sohag, 2025. "The dynamic response of Russian exchange rate to precious metals and minerals prices," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 38(1), pages 59-75, March.
    22. Lee, Geon Hee & Kim, Young Min, 2025. "Oil price uncertainty shock and Korean sectoral stock market: The role of common factor and asymmetry," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04433059. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.