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The central banks’ ability to control variability of money market interest rates: The case of inflation targeting countries

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  • Bruna, Karel
  • Tran, Quang Van

Abstract

It is well known that variability of money market interest rates is time variant. Further, the ability to control money market interest rates by central bank is also important for effectiveness of inflation targeting. As a contribution to understanding the transmission between main monetary policy rate and money market interest rates an innovative formal framework of money market interest rate variability reflecting variety of macroeconomic shocks was developed. Subsequently, a middle size macro-financial model with exogenous variables is estimated by the Bayesian method with sign restriction to identify main sources of macroeconomic shocks. Parameters of this model are estimated from a dataset of six countries with long-lasting history of inflation targeting. Using the estimation results, three measures of ability to control of money market interest rates are derived and they are used to compare time and country specific conditions of the effects of main policy rate on money market interest rates. We consider these measures as an important contribution for evaluating suitability of VAR models as well as the one for measuring the ability of central bank to control money market rates. Our findings are interesting and the novel approach is applicable to solve similar problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruna, Karel & Tran, Quang Van, 2020. "The central banks’ ability to control variability of money market interest rates: The case of inflation targeting countries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 384-402.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:176:y:2020:i:c:p:384-402
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2020.04.012
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Money market; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy; Bayesian VAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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