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Interdependence and Volatility Spillovers Under Market Liberalization: The Case of Istanbul Stock Exchange

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  • Ali F. Darrat
  • Omar M. Benkato

Abstract

This paper analyzes stock returns and volatility relations between the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and the global market as represented by stock markets in the US, the UK, Japan and Germany. Results from monthly data and multivariate cointegration tests suggest that the ISE became significantly integrated in the global market only in the period following market liberalization in late 1989. We also find evidence based on GARCH estimations that capital liberalization actually mitigated, rather than intensified, volatility in the ISE. Our results further suggest that the Asian crisis in mid‐1997 and the consequent Russian economic meltdown in mid‐1998 are partly responsible for the recent excessive volatility in the Turkish market. The results also identify the US and the UK markets as dominate sources of volatility spillovers for the ISE, even in the period following the Asian‐Russian crises. Consequently, it appears that the two matured markets of the US and the UK shoulder significant responsibility for the stability and financial health of smaller emerging markets like the ISE.

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  • Ali F. Darrat & Omar M. Benkato, 2003. "Interdependence and Volatility Spillovers Under Market Liberalization: The Case of Istanbul Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(7‐8), pages 1089-1114, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:30:y:2003:i:7-8:p:1089-1114
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5957.05499
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    3. Aymen Ben Rejeb & Adel Boughrara, 2015. "Financial integration in emerging market economies: Effects on volatility transmission and contagion," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 15(3), pages 161-179, September.
    4. Atilla Çifter & Alper Özün, 2007. "The Predictive Performance of Asymmetric Normal Mixture GARCH in Risk Management: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 1(1), pages 7-34.
    5. Kyosuke Shiotani & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2013. "Financial Market Linkage In East Asian Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Takuji Kinkyo & Yoichi Matsubayashi & Shigeyuki Hamori (ed.), Global Linkages and Economic Rebalancing in East Asia, chapter 3, pages 43-63, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Saif Siddiqui, 2009. "Stock Markets Integration: Examining Linkages between Selected World Markets," Vision, , vol. 13(1), pages 19-30, January.
    7. Ceylan Onay & Gözde Ünal, 2012. "Cointegration and Extreme Value Analyses of Bovespa and the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(1), pages 66-90, February.
    8. Mohammad Mahdi Shahrazi & Zahra (Mila) Elmi & Esmaiel Abounoori & Saeed Rasekhi, 2014. "The Influence of Structural Changes in Volatility on Shock Transmission and Volatility Spillover among Iranian Gold and Foreign Exchange Markets," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 18(2), pages 73-86, Spring.
    9. Marashdeh, Hazem, 2005. "Stock Market Integration in the MENA Region: An Application of the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Economics Working Papers wp05-27, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    10. Priyanka Singh & Brajesh Kumar & Pandey, Ajay, 2008. "Price and Volatility Spillovers across North American, European and Asian Stock Markets: With Special Focus on Indian Stock Market," IIMA Working Papers WP2008-12-04, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    11. Chuang, I-Yuan & Lu, Jin-Ray & Tswei, Keshin, 2007. "Interdependence of international equity variances: Evidence from East Asian markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 311-327, December.
    12. Osamah AlKhazali, 2011. "Does infrequent trading make a difference on stock market efficiency?," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 28(2), pages 96-110, June.
    13. Mehdian, Seyed & Nas, Tevfik & Perry, Mark J., 2008. "An examination of investor reaction to unexpected political and economic events in Turkey," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 337-350.
    14. Ugur Ergun & Abu Hassan Shaari Mohd Nor, 2010. "The Stock Market Relationship between Turkey and the United States under Unionisation," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 6(2), pages 19-33.
    15. Arago-Manzana, Vicent & Fernandez-Izquierdo, Maria Angeles, 2007. "Influence of structural changes in transmission of information between stock markets: A European empirical study," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 112-124, April.
    16. Aymen Ben Rejeb, 2013. "Volatility spillovers and contagion: an empirical analysis of structural changes in emerging market volatility," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 56-71.
    17. W.I.C.S. Gunasinghe, 2005. "Behaviour of Stock Markets in South Asia," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 6(2), pages 165-191, September.
    18. Alar Kein, 2005. "An Investigation of the Role of Cross-Border Spillover of Returns and Volatility in the Estonian Stock Market," Working Papers 120, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology.
    19. Yunsen Chen & Jianqiao Huang & Xiao Li & Qingbo Yuan, 2022. "Does stock market liberalization improve stock price efficiency? Evidence from China," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(7-8), pages 1175-1210, July.
    20. Ezzat, Hassan, 2014. "Impact of Political Instability on Cointegration: Evidence from MENA Region Stock Markets during Pre and Post Egyptian Revolution Period," MPRA Paper 110566, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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