Is the European Capital Market Ready for the Single Currency?
This paper defines, and investigates the extent of, capital market integration in the European Ecu government bond market sector utilising Johansen's (1992) multivariate analysis. Evidence suggests the yield system is driven by a unique common trend, although we reject the zero-sum restriction on the cointegrating vector. The former finding is consistent with our definition of full Ecu capital market integration, the latter is not, although it is explainable by failure of the expectations hypothesis. Our results support market utilisation of the extant Ecu yield curve as the initial benchmark for pricing euro-denominated debt securities following stage III EMU. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1999.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 26 (1999-01)
Issue (Month): 1-2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0306-686X|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0306-686X|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, S., 1991.
"Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend,"
76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
- Shea, Gary S, 1992. "Benchmarking the Expectations Hypothesis of the Interest-Rate Term Structure: An Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 347-66, July.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Javier Gardeazabal & Kamil Yilmaz, 1993.
"On cointegration and exchange rate dynamics,"
93-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- D. F. I. Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 1994.
"Determining the Value of a Financial Unit of Account Basedon Composite Currencies: The Case of the Private Ecu,"
IMF Working Papers
94/72, International Monetary Fund.
- David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 1995. "Determining the Value of a Financial Unit of Account Based on Composite Currencies: The Case of the Private ECU," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 134-157, March.
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989.
"The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity,"
8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1989.
"The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation,"
NBER Working Papers
3126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mishkin, Frederic S, 1990. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 815-28, August.
- Mougoue, Mbodja, 1992. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates as a Cointegrated System: Empirical Evidence from the Eurocurrency Market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 285-96, Fall.
- Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
- Hafer, R W & Kutan, A M, 1994. "A Long-Run View of German Dominance and the Degree of Policy Convergence in the EMS," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(4), pages 684-95, October.
- Mbodja Mougoué, 1992. "The Term Structure Of Interest Rates As A Cointegrated System: Empirical Evidence From The Eurocurrency Market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 285-296, 09.
- Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February.
- Cuthbertson, Keith, 1996. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: The UK Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 578-92, May.
- Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "Cointegration and the US term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 167-181, January.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:26:y:1999-01:i:1-2:p:1-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.