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Hedging with commodity futures and the end of normal Backwardation

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Abstract

Using the S&P GSCI and its five component sub-indices, we show that considering each commodity separately yields nontrivial hedging gains in and out of sample. During 1999–2019, the maximum Sharpe ratio portfolio assigns positive weights to the GSCI Energy, Industrial and Precious Metals, whereas only precious metals enter the optimal portfolio after the financial crisis. In out-of-sample optimizations based on dynamic conditional correlations, a subset of commodity futures excluding the GSCI Agriculture and Livestock outperforms conventional stock-bond portfolios with and without the overall GSCI. We argue that the “normal backwardation” in commodity markets has broken down during our sample period.

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  • Jochen Güntner & Benjamin Karner, 2020. "Hedging with commodity futures and the end of normal Backwardation," Economics working papers 2020-21, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    • Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2020-21
    Note: English
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    1. Juan Antonio Galán-Gutiérrez & Rodrigo Martín-García, 2022. "Fundamentals vs. Financialization during Extreme Events: From Backwardation to Contango, a Copper Market Analysis during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Galán-Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio & Labeaga, José M. & Martín-García, Rodrigo, 2023. "Cointegration between high base metals prices and backwardation: Getting ready for the metals super-cycle," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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