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Energy Transition Metals

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  • Boer, Lukas
  • Pescatori, Andrea
  • Stuermer, Martin

Abstract

The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks with an ``anchor'' variable, estimate supply elasticities, and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total production value of these four metals alone would rise more than four-fold to USD 13 trillion for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the estimated total value of crude oil production. These metals could potentially become as important to the global economy as crude oil.

Suggested Citation

  • Boer, Lukas & Pescatori, Andrea & Stuermer, Martin, 2021. "Energy Transition Metals," MPRA Paper 110364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110364
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    2. Thomas Allen & Mathieu Boullot & Stéphane Dées & Annabelle de Gaye & Noëmie Lisack & Camille Thubin & Oriane Wegner, 2023. "Using Short-Term Scenarios to Assess the Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Transition," Working papers 922, Banque de France.
    3. Alessi, Lucia & Ossola, Elisa & Panzica, Roberto, 2023. "When do investors go green? Evidence from a time-varying asset-pricing model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Etienne ESPAGNE & Hugo LAPEYRONIE, 2023. "Energy transition minerals and the SDGs. A systematic review," Working Paper ebe0968c-fce0-4ce9-b3b6-b, Agence française de développement.
    5. Committeri, Marco & Brüggemann, Axel & Kosterink, Patrick & Reininger, Thomas & Stevens, Luc & Vonessen, Benjamin & Zaghini, Andrea & Garrido, Isabel & Van Meensel, Lena & Strašuna, Lija & Tiililä, Ne, 2022. "The role of the IMF in addressing climate change risks," Occasional Paper Series 309, European Central Bank.
    6. George Yunxiong Li & Simona Iammarino, 2024. "Critical Raw Materials and Renewable Energy Transition: The Role of Domestic Supply," Discussion Paper series in Regional Science & Economic Geography 2024-04, Gran Sasso Science Institute, Social Sciences, revised Oct 2024.
    7. Ghosh, Bikramaditya & Pham, Linh & Teplova, Tamara & Umar, Zaghum, 2023. "COVID-19 and the quantile connectedness between energy and metal markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    8. Agnese, Pablo & Rios, Francisco, 2024. "Spillover effects of energy transition metals in Chile," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Martin Stuermer, 2022. "Non-renewable resource extraction over the long term: empirical evidence from global copper production," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(3), pages 617-625, December.
    10. Alberto Prina Cerai, 2024. "Geography of control: a deep dive assessment on criticality and lithium supply chain," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 37(3), pages 499-546, September.
    11. Zhang, Hongwei & Zhang, Yubo & Gao, Wang & Li, Yingli, 2023. "Extreme quantile spillovers and drivers among clean energy, electricity and energy metals markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional forecasts; structural vector autoregression; structural scenario analysis; energy transition; metals; fossil fuels; prices; climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • L72 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

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