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Monetary Policy across Inflation Regimes

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Abstract

Does the effect of monetary policy depend on the prevailing level of inflation? In order to answer this question, we construct a parsimonious nonlinear time series model that allows for inflation regimes. We find that the effects of monetary policy are markedly different when year-over-year inflation exceeds 5.5 percent. Below this threshold, changes in monetary policy have a short-lived effect on prices, but no effect on the unemployment rate, giving a potential explanation for the recent “soft landing” in the United States. Above this threshold, the effects of monetary policy surprises on both inflation and unemployment can be larger and longer lasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Valeria Gargiulo & Christian Matthes & Katerina Petrova, 2024. "Monetary Policy across Inflation Regimes," Staff Reports 1083, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:97623
    DOI: 10.59576/sr.1083
    Note: Revised August 2024.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Zixiang & Wen, Yake & Zhou, Weimin & Liu, Xintong, 2025. "The state-dependent effects of oil supply news shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Knut Are Aastveit & Jamie Cross & Francesco Furlanetto & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2024. "Taylor Rules with Endogenous Regimes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-030/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Ding Dong & Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Min Wei, 2024. "Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Knut Are Aastveit & Jamie L. Cross & Francesco Furlanetto & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2024. "Taylor Rules with Endogenous Regimes," Working Papers No 04/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    5. Yoosoon Chang & Steven N. Durlauf & Bo Hu & Joon Y. Park, 2024. "Accounting for Individual-Specific Heterogeneity in Intergenerational Income Mobility," Working Papers No 03/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    6. Knut Are Aastveit & Jamie Cross & Francesco Furlanetto & Herman K van Dijk, 2024. "Asymmetric Gradualism in US Monetary Policy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-074/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Carlos Cañizares Martínez & Adriana Lojschová & Alicia Aguilar, 2026. "Non-linear effects of monetary policy shocks on housing: evidence from a CESEE country," BCL working papers 202, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    8. Jaanika Merikyll & Matthias Rottner, 2025. "Monetary policy and earnings inequality.Inflation dependencies," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2025-05, Bank of Estonia, revised 13 Jun 2025.

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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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