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Efectos de Shocks al Precio del Petróleo sobre la Economía de Chile y sus Socios Comerciales

Listed author(s):
  • Michael Pedersen
  • Miguel Ricaurte

With the objective of evaluating the impact of oil price shocks on the Chilean economy, this paper applies the sign restriction methodology to impulse-response functions in order to distinguish the effects of different types of shocks, namely supply, demand, or oil-specific demand. It also applies the exercise to the aggregate trade partners (TP) of Chile, as well as its four main TPs: China, the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan. The main results are the following. Consumer price indices increase both for Chile and its TPs in response to oil supply and world demand shocks, while they differ for oil-specific demand shocks. On the other hand, oil supply problems have a negative impact on Chilean output, but null effect on its TPs. The behavior of interest rates points at differences between Chile and its TPs. Regarding the nominal exchange rate, it depreciates for Chile when the oil price increases due to supply or oil-specific demand shocks, and it appreciates in response to an increase in world demand.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 691.

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Date of creation: Jun 2013
Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:691
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  1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
  2. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman & Ine Van Robays, 2010. "The Economic Consequences of Oil Shocks: Differences across Countries and Time," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
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  10. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September.
  11. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, 03.
  12. Gert Peersman, 2011. "The Relative Importance of Symmetric and Asymmetric Shocks: The Case of United Kingdom and Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(1), pages 104-118, 02.
  13. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
  14. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
  15. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
  16. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
  17. Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-179, April.
  18. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2007. "Some Issues in Using Sign Restrictions for Identifying Structural VARs," NCER Working Paper Series 14, National Centre for Econometric Research.
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