IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpmi/0406001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Anticipated and unanticipated effects of crude oil prices and oil inventory changes on gasoline prices

Author

Listed:
  • Stanislav Radchenko

    (Department of Economics, University of North Carolina at Charlotte)

Abstract

This paper proposes a method of distinguishing between the effect of anticipated and unanticipated changes in oil prices and oil inventories on the US gasoline prices. I show that gasoline price adjustments are faster and stronger for anticipated changes in oil prices and inventory levels than for unanticipated changes. The dynamics of the gasoline price response depends on the relative importance of anticipated and unanticipated changes in oil prices and oil inventories in the model. In all versions of the adjustment model, the response of gasoline prices to unanticipated oil price changes is lagged and incomplete. In versions of the model where anticipated oil price changes are relatively important, the response of gasoline prices to anticipated changes in oil prices is immediate and large. As anticipated oil price changes become less important, the response of gasoline prices to anticipated oil price changes becomes muted and delayed.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Anticipated and unanticipated effects of crude oil prices and oil inventory changes on gasoline prices," Microeconomics 0406001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:0406001
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 39
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mic/papers/0406/0406001.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 141-159, Spring.
    2. Severin Borenstein & Andrea Shepard, 2002. "Sticky Prices, Inventories, and Market Power in Wholesale Gasoline Markets," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 33(1), pages 116-139, Spring.
    3. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Can oil shocks explain asymmetries in the US Business Cycle?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 185-204.
    4. Reilly, Barry & Witt, Robert, 1998. "Petrol price asymmetries revisited," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 297-308, June.
    5. Sam Peltzman, 2000. "Prices Rise Faster than They Fall," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 466-502, June.
    6. Ronald Johnson, 2002. "Search Costs, Lags and Prices at the Pump," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 20(1), pages 33-50, February.
    7. Godby, Rob & Lintner, Anastasia M. & Stengos, Thanasis & Wandschneider, Bo, 2000. "Testing for asymmetric pricing in the Canadian retail gasoline market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 349-368, June.
    8. Bacon, Robert W., 1991. "Rockets and feathers: the asymmetric speed of adjustment of UK retail gasoline prices to cost changes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 211-218, July.
    9. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    10. Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2000. "Gasoline and crude oil prices: why the asymmetry?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q3, pages 23-29.
    11. Severin Borenstein & A. Colin Cameron & Richard Gilbert, 1997. "Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 305-339.
    12. Galeotti, Marzio & Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2003. "Rockets and feathers revisited: an international comparison on European gasoline markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 175-190, March.
    13. Raymond, Jennie E & Rich, Robert W, 1997. "Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 193-213, May.
    14. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
    15. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P.A. Brown & Mine K. Yucel, 2002. "Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Economy: Where Does the Asymmetry Originate?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 27-52.
    16. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Lags in the response of gasoline prices to changes in crude oil," Econometrics 0406001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 1998. "Crude oil and gasoline prices: an asymmetric relationship?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q 1, pages 2-11.
    18. Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Radchenko, Stanislav, 2005. "Oil price volatility and the asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 708-730, September.
    2. Tuan Van Nguyen, 2013. "The stable relationship between crude oil price and petrol price: Evidence from multivariate GARCH model," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(2), pages 27-40., June.
    3. Radchenko, Stanislav & Tsurumi, Hiroki, 2006. "Limited information Bayesian analysis of a simultaneous equation with an autocorrelated error term and its application to the U.S. gasoline market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 31-49, July.
    4. Michael Fung, 2014. "Ocean Carriers’ Collusion Under Antitrust Immunity: Evidence of Asymmetric Pass-Through," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 45(1), pages 59-77, August.
    5. Michael Noel, 2009. "Do retail gasoline prices respond asymmetrically to cost shocks? The influence of Edgeworth Cycles," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 40(3), pages 582-595, September.
    6. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "Solar Australia," MPRA Paper 71201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "A Model of Sustainable Growth with Renewables( Wind, CS, Algae) in Africa Europe Relation," MPRA Paper 74515, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Radchenko, Stanislav, 2005. "Oil price volatility and the asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 708-730, September.
    2. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "Solar Australia," MPRA Paper 71201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Lunackova, Petra, 2015. "Rockets and feathers meet Joseph: Reinvestigating the oil–gasoline asymmetry on the international markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-8.
    4. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "A Model of Sustainable Growth with Renewables( Wind, CS, Algae) in Africa Europe Relation," MPRA Paper 74515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Lags in the response of gasoline prices to changes in crude oil," Econometrics 0406001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Radchenko, Stanislav & Shapiro, Dmitry, 2011. "Anticipated and unanticipated effects of crude oil prices and gasoline inventory changes on gasoline prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 758-769, September.
    7. Mario Denni & G. Frewer, 2006. "New evidence on the relationship beetween crude oil and petroleum product prices," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0061, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    8. Berument, M. Hakan & Sahin, Afsin & Sahin, Serkan, 2014. "The relative effects of crude oil price and exchange rate on petroleum product prices: Evidence from a set of Northern Mediterranean countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 243-249.
    9. Karagiannis, Stelios & Panagopoulos, Yannis & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2015. "Are unleaded gasoline and diesel price adjustments symmetric? A comparison of the four largest EU retail fuel markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 281-291.
    10. Perdiguero-García, Jordi, 2013. "Symmetric or asymmetric oil prices? A meta-analysis approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 389-397.
    11. Jordi Perdiguero-García, 2010. "“Symmetric or asymmetric gasoline prices? A metaanalysis approach”," IREA Working Papers 201013, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2010.
    12. Koopmans, Carl & Lieshout, Rogier, 2016. "Airline cost changes: To what extent are they passed through to the passenger?," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-11.
    13. Grasso, Margherita & Manera, Matteo, 2007. "Asymmetric error correction models for the oil-gasoline price relationship," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 156-177, January.
    14. Giliola Frey & Matteo Manera, 2007. "Econometric Models Of Asymmetric Price Transmission," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 349-415, April.
    15. Contín-Pilart, Ignacio & Correljé, Aad F. & Blanca Palacios, M., 2009. "Competition, regulation, and pricing behaviour in the Spanish retail gasoline market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 219-228, January.
    16. Bremmer, Dale S. & Kesselring, Randall G., 2016. "The relationship between U.S. retail gasoline and crude oil prices during the Great Recession: “Rockets and feathers” or “balloons and rocks” behavior?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 200-210.
    17. María Torrado & Álvaro Escribano, 2020. "European gasoline markets: price transmission asymmetries in mean and variance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(42), pages 4621-4638, September.
    18. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2009. "Do Retail Petrol Prices Rise More Rapidly Than They Fall in Australia’s Capital Cities?," Economics Working Papers wp09-08, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    19. Bettendorf, Leon & van der Geest, Stephanie A. & Varkevisser, Marco, 2003. "Price asymmetry in the Dutch retail gasoline market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 669-689, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    gasoline price response; anticipated price changes; oil inventory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L7 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:0406001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.