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Supply Chain Disruption and Energy Supply Shocks: Impact on Euro-Area Output and Prices

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  • Roberto A. De Santis

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

We identify jointly supply chain disruptions shocks and energy supply shocks together with demand shocks using a structural Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with narrative restrictions. The impact of adverse supply chain disruption shocks on inflation expectations and core HICP is strong and rather persistent, while the impact is small and transitory after energy supply shocks. Supply chain disruption shocks and favorable demand shocks explain the large faction of output fluctuations in the 2020–22 period. The dynamics of core prices and inflation expectations are instead mostly explained by supply chain disruption shocks and to a lesser extent by adverse energy supply shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto A. De Santis, 2024. "Supply Chain Disruption and Energy Supply Shocks: Impact on Euro-Area Output and Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(2), pages 193-235, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2024:q:2:a:5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Fukunaga, Ichiro & Kido, Yosuke & Suita, Kotaro, 2025. "Japan's inflation under global inflation synchronization," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Leonor Coutinho & Mirko Licchetta, 2025. "Inflation Differentials in the Euro Area at the Time of High Energy Prices," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(5), pages 1463-1497, November.
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    6. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2025. "Energy supply shocks’ nonlinearities on output and prices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    7. Ascari, Guido & Bonam, Dennis & Smadu, Andra, 2024. "Global supply chain pressures, inflation, and implications for monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    8. Morão, Hugo, 2025. "The economic effects of tensions in energy transportation," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Kaori Ochi, 2026. "Understanding Post-Pandemic Inflation in Japan and the U.S.: A Narrative Sign Restriction Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 26-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    10. Daniele Colombo & Francesco Toni, 2025. "Understanding Gas Price Shocks: Elasticities, Volatility and Macroeconomic Transmission," GREDEG Working Papers 2025-20, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
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    12. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Van Robays, Ine & Cassinis, Maria Giulia, 2025. "Supply shocks and inflation: timely insights from financial markets," Working Paper Series 3096, European Central Bank.
    13. Anderl, Christina & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 2024. "Shipping cost uncertainty, endogenous regime switching and the global drivers of inflation," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    14. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2025. "Macroeconomic regime change and the size of supply chain disruption and energy supply shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
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    16. Daniele Colombo & Francesco Toni, 2025. "Understanding Gas Price Shocks: Elasticities, Volatilities, and Macroeconomic Transmission," LEM Papers Series 2025/20, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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