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Do Oil Endowment and Productivity Matter for Accumulation of International Reserves?

Author

Listed:
  • Rasmus Fatum

    (University of Alberta)

  • Guozhong Zhu

    (University of Alberta)

  • Wenjie Hui

    (wenjiehui@pku.edu.cn)

Abstract

We develop a dynamic stochastic optimization model with oil price shocks to show that countries with certain combinations of oil endowment and productivity have strong precautionary incentives to accumulate foreign reserves in response to oil price shocks. Using the Simulated Method of Moments to estimate the model we demonstrate how oil price shocks are absorbed by changes in foreign reserves which, in turn, leads to less variation in aggregate consumption. Along with productivity and oil endowment, we also consider as determinants of reserves holding conventional variables such as trade- to-GDP ratio and capital openness. Overall, our results suggest that productivity and oil endowment are potentially important determinants of foreign reserves that for some countries should be considered as complements to conventional determinants.

Suggested Citation

  • Rasmus Fatum & Guozhong Zhu & Wenjie Hui, "undated". "Do Oil Endowment and Productivity Matter for Accumulation of International Reserves?," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2016_027, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    • Handle: RePEc:cth:wpaper:gru_2016_027
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    File URL: https://www.cb.cityu.edu.hk/ef/doc/GRU/WPS/27_Fatum.pdf
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    2. Razek, Noha & Galvani, Valentina & McQuinn, Brian & Rajan, Surya, 2025. "Does Saudi Arabia's International Competitiveness Improve Due to Sanctions Imposed on Competitors? The case of two wars," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 457-482.
    3. Wahyoe Soedarmono & Iman Gunadi & Fiskara Indawan & Carla Sheila Wulandari, 2022. "The Dynamics Of Foreign Capital Flows In Indonesia: Sources And Implications On Bond Market And Bank Stability," Working Papers WP/03/2022, Bank Indonesia.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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