Central bank intervention, threshold effects and asymmetric volatility: Evidence from the Japanese yen-US dollar foreign exchange market
Recent empirical evidence of nonlinearities in the time series behaviour of exchange rates suggests that a linear model of the exchange rate may yield invalid inference when used to assess the effectiveness of central bank intervention. Using a double threshold GARCH model of the Japanese yen-US dollar exchange rates, we find that interventions by the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve are more effective in changing the direction of the exchange rate movements and reducing its volatility level in a regime when the exchange rates are severely misaligned. There is also evidence in such a regime for a negative return innovation to elicit higher levels of volatility than a positive innovation of equal magnitude. The presence of asymmetric volatility in exchange rate returns may be a result of active central bank intervention.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Beine, Michel & Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Lecourt, Christelle, 2002.
"Central bank intervention and foreign exchange rates: new evidence from FIGARCH estimations,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 115-144, February.
- Michel Beine & Agnes Bénassy-Quéré & Christelle Lecourt, 2002. "Central Bank intervention and foreign exchange rates: new evidence from FIGARCH estimations," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10445, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Erdem Basci & Mehmet Caner, 2005.
"Are Real Exchange Rates Nonlinear or Nonstationary? Evidence from a new Threshold Unit Root Test,"
- Basci Erdem & Caner Mehmet, 2005. "Are Real Exchange Rates Nonlinear or Nonstationary? Evidence from a New Threshold Unit Root Test," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, December.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993.
" On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sebastien & Lecourt, Christelle, 2003.
"Official central bank interventions and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from a regime-switching analysis,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 891-911, October.
- Michel Beine & Sébastien Laurent & Christelle Lecourt, 2003. "Official central bank interventions and exchange rate volatility: evidence from a regime-switching analysis," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10437, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- BEINE, Michel & LAURENT, Sébastien & LECOURT, Christelle, . "Official central bank interventions and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1705, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997.
"Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Michael-Nobay-Peel ESTAR models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00113, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001.
"Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 0088, European Central Bank.
- Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 464, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-55, December.
- Mark P. Taylor, 2004.
"Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?,"
London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71, pages 1-11, 02.
- Eric Hillebrand & Gunther Schnabl, 2004.
"The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention: GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection,"
- Eric Hillebrand & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention, GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 7, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Eric Hillebrand & Gunther Schnabl, . "The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention: GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection," Departmental Working Papers 2003-09, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001.
"Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
- Caner,M. & Hansen,B.E., 1998.
"Threshold autoregression with a near unit root,"
27, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
- Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December.
- McKenzie, Michael, 2002. "The Economics of Exchange Rate Volatility Asymmetry," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 247-60, July.
- Brooks, Chris, 2001. "A Double-Threshold GARCH Model for the French Franc/Deutschmark Exchange Rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 135-43, March.
- Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin, 2001. "Nominal exchange-rate prediction: evidence from a nonlinear approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 521-532, August.
- Pippenger, Michael K & Goering, Gregory E, 1993. "A Note on the Empirical Power of Unit Root Tests under Threshold Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(4), pages 473-81, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:25:y:2008:i:4:p:628-642. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.