IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v109y2022ics0264999322000384.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting macroeconomic effects of stablecoin adoption: A Bayesian approach

Author

Listed:
  • Bojaj, Martin M.
  • Muhadinovic, Milica
  • Bracanovic, Andrej
  • Mihailovic, Andrej
  • Radulovic, Mladen
  • Jolicic, Ivan
  • Milosevic, Igor
  • Milacic, Veselin

Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of stablecoin adoption on key macroeconomic factors in Montenegro. The main explanation for the adoption of stablecoins is their one-to-one peg to various currencies and commodities. Previous studies have relied on the relationships among cryptocurrencies and thus could not disentangle the country-level macroeconomic effects of stablecoins from the effects of other cryptocurrencies. Using data from January 2006 to December 2019, we decompose the correlation between cryptocurrencies and their effects on the economy due to (a) shocks to stablecoins and (b) shocks to Bitcoin. Contrary to assumptions, stablecoins do not maintain their peg in “crash times” but do promote economic growth. Bitcoin's volatility deanchors investor expectations, disrupts markets, and destabilizes key macroeconomic factors. Our novel findings indicate that stablecoin adoption should not be based only on a one-to-one assumption and reveal the mechanism of key gaps by a prudential authority.

Suggested Citation

  • Bojaj, Martin M. & Muhadinovic, Milica & Bracanovic, Andrej & Mihailovic, Andrej & Radulovic, Mladen & Jolicic, Ivan & Milosevic, Igor & Milacic, Veselin, 2022. "Forecasting macroeconomic effects of stablecoin adoption: A Bayesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:109:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322000384
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105792
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999322000384
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105792?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    2. Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Giudici, Paolo & Mojtahedi, Fatemeh, 2021. "Tail risk measurement in crypto-asset markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 564-608, February.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    6. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    7. Jinan Liu & Apostolos Serletis, 2019. "Volatility in the Cryptocurrency Market," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 779-811, September.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    9. Bullmann, Dirk & Klemm, Jonas & Pinna, Andrea, 2019. "In search for stability in crypto-assets: are stablecoins the solution?," Occasional Paper Series 230, European Central Bank.
    10. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    11. Jiang, Yonghong & Lie, Jiayi & Wang, Jieru & Mu, Jinqi, 2021. "Revisiting the roles of cryptocurrencies in stock markets: A quantile coherency perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 21-34.
    12. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Can volume predict Bitcoin returns and volatility? A quantiles-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 74-81.
    13. Ran Spiegler, 2016. "Bayesian Networks and Boundedly Rational Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1243-1290.
    14. Cornalba, Chiara & Giudici, Paolo, 2004. "Statistical models for operational risk management," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 338(1), pages 166-172.
    15. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Benlagha, Noureddine & Maouchi, Youcef, 2020. "Investigating the dynamic relationship between cryptocurrencies and conventional assets: Implications for financial investors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 198-217.
    16. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2016. "Joint confidence sets for structural impulse responses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 421-432.
    17. Tsionas, Mike G. & Mallick, Sushanta K., 2019. "A Bayesian semiparametric approach to stochastic frontiers and productivity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(1), pages 391-402.
    18. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Giudici, Paolo & Leach, Thomas, 2022. "The drivers of cyber risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    19. Sapkota, Niranjan & Grobys, Klaus, 2021. "Asset market equilibria in cryptocurrency markets: Evidence from a study of privacy and non-privacy coins," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    20. Jinan Liu & Apostolos Serletis, 2019. "Volatility in the Cryptocurrency Market," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 779-811, September.
    21. Fousekis, Panos & Tzaferi, Dimitra, 2021. "Returns and volume: Frequency connectedness in cryptocurrency markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 13-20.
    22. Singh, Amanjot, 2021. "Investigating the dynamic relationship between litigation funding, gold, bitcoin and the stock market: The case of Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 45-57.
    23. Roeger, Werner & in 't Veld, Jan, 2004. "Some selected simulation experiments with the European commission's QUEST model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 785-832, September.
    24. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2018. "Return and volatility spillovers among cryptocurrencies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 122-127.
    25. Jiang, Yonghong & Nie, He & Ruan, Weihua, 2018. "Time-varying long-term memory in Bitcoin market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 280-284.
    26. Gandal, Neil & Hamrick, JT & Moore, Tyler & Oberman, Tali, 2018. "Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 86-96.
    27. Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Xin-yu & Wu, Hao-yu, 2020. "Are stablecoins truly diversifiers, hedges, or safe havens against traditional cryptocurrencies as their name suggests?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    28. Liu, Weiyi & Liang, Xuan & Cui, Guowei, 2020. "Common risk factors in the returns on cryptocurrencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 299-305.
    29. Gordana Djurovic & Vasilije Djurovic & Martin M. Bojaj, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 in Montenegro: a Bayesian VARX approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-16, December.
    30. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Urquhart, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as a financial asset: A systematic analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 182-199.
    31. Katsiampa, Paraskevi, 2017. "Volatility estimation for Bitcoin: A comparison of GARCH models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 3-6.
    32. Paolo Giordani, 2004. "Evaluating New‐Keynesian Models of a Small Open Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 713-733, September.
    33. Canh, Nguyen Phuc & Wongchoti, Udomsak & Thanh, Su Dinh & Thong, Nguyen Trung, 2019. "Systematic risk in cryptocurrency market: Evidence from DCC-MGARCH model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 90-100.
    34. Yi, Shuyue & Xu, Zishuang & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2018. "Volatility connectedness in the cryptocurrency market: Is Bitcoin a dominant cryptocurrency?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 98-114.
    35. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    36. Zhang, Bing & Li, Xiao-Ming, 2014. "Has there been any change in the comovement between the Chinese and US stock markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 525-536.
    37. Zeng, Ting & Yang, Mengying & Shen, Yifan, 2020. "Fancy Bitcoin and conventional financial assets: Measuring market integration based on connectedness networks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 209-220.
    38. Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance under Alternative Specifications of Time‐Varying Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 551-575, June.
    39. Jeffrey Chu & Stephen Chan & Saralees Nadarajah & Joerg Osterrieder, 2017. "GARCH Modelling of Cryptocurrencies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, October.
    40. Sam Ouliaris & Adrian Pagan, 2016. "A Method for Working with Sign Restrictions in Structural Equation Modelling," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 605-622, October.
    41. Fry, John & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2016. "Negative bubbles and shocks in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 343-352.
    42. Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2020. "Safe haven, hedge and diversification for G7 stock markets: Gold versus bitcoin," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 212-224.
    43. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran, 2021. "BitCoin: A new basket for eggs?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 896-907.
    44. David Y. Aharon & Zaghum Umar & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers between the term structure of interest rates, bitcoin, and safe-haven currencies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, December.
    45. Kundu, Srikanta & Sarkar, Nityananda, 2016. "Return and volatility interdependences in up and down markets across developed and emerging countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 297-311.
    46. Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2016. "Hedging capabilities of bitcoin. Is it the virtual gold?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 139-144.
    47. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Dynamic connectedness and integration in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 257-272.
    48. Ante, Lennart & Fiedler, Ingo & Strehle, Elias, 2021. "The influence of stablecoin issuances on cryptocurrency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    49. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Lucey, Brian, 2019. "Is Bitcoin a better safe-haven investment than gold and commodities?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 322-330.
    50. Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(6), pages 2689-2727.
    51. Baur, Dirk G. & Hong, KiHoon & Lee, Adrian D., 2018. "Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 177-189.
    52. Urom, Christian & Abid, Ilyes & Guesmi, Khaled & Chevallier, Julien, 2020. "Quantile spillovers and dependence between Bitcoin, equities and strategic commodities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 230-258.
    53. Wei, Wang Chun, 2018. "Liquidity and market efficiency in cryptocurrencies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 21-24.
    54. Borri, Nicola, 2019. "Conditional tail-risk in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-19.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rina Astini & Kehkashan Ishrat & Yanto Ramli & Tafiprios Tafiprios & Kwong Wing Chong & Ooi Chee Keong, 2023. "Nexus among Crypto Trading, Environmental Degradation, Economic Growth and Energy Usage: Analysis of Top 10 Cryptofriendly Asian Economies," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 339-347, September.
    2. Radosław Miśkiewicz & Krzysztof Matan & Jakub Karnowski, 2022. "The Role of Crypto Trading in the Economy, Renewable Energy Consumption and Ecological Degradation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-15, May.
    3. Sood, Kirti & Singh, Simarjeet & Behl, Abhishek & Sindhwani, Rahul & Kaur, Sandeepa & Pereira, Vijay, 2023. "Identification and prioritization of the risks in the mass adoption of artificial intelligence-driven stable coins: The quest for optimal resource utilization," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Jin, Feng & Li, Jingwei & Xue, Yi, 2023. "Preferring stablecoin over dollar: Evidence from a survey of Ethereum platform traders," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. Zhang, Pengcheng & Kong, Deli & Xu, Kunpeng & Qi, Jiayin, 2024. "Global economic policy uncertainty and the stability of cryptocurrency returns: The role of liquidity volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    6. Cui, Tianxiang & Ding, Shusheng & Jin, Huan & Zhang, Yongmin, 2023. "Portfolio constructions in cryptocurrency market: A CVaR-based deep reinforcement learning approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    7. Bojaj, Martin M. & Djurovic, Gordana & Fabris, Nikola & Milovic, Nikola, 2023. "Top 1% and inequality connectedness in the EMU and WB," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 139-155.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cynthia Weiyi Cai & Rui Xue & Bi Zhou, 2023. "Cryptocurrency puzzles: a comprehensive review and re-introduction," Journal of Accounting Literature, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 26-50, June.
    2. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    3. Chen, Bin-xia & Sun, Yan-lin, 2024. "Risk characteristics and connectedness in cryptocurrency markets: New evidence from a non-linear framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    4. Helder Miguel Correia Virtuoso Sebastião & Paulo José Osório Rupino Da Cunha & Pedro Manuel Cortesão Godinho, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Overview and future perspectives," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(3), pages 305-342.
    5. Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Nguyen, Thong Trung, 2020. "“Small things matter most”: The spillover effects in the cryptocurrency market and gold as a silver bullet," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Jiang, Wen & Xu, Qiuhua & Zhang, Ruige, 2022. "Tail-event driven network of cryptocurrencies and conventional assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    7. BRIK, Hatem & El OUAKDI, Jihene & FTITI, Zied, 2022. "Roles of stable versus nonstable cryptocurrencies in Bitcoin market dynamics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Hu, Yang & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Oxley, Les & Corbet, Shaen, 2021. "Does blockchain patent-development influence Bitcoin risk?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2019. "Cryptocurrency market contagion: Market uncertainty, market complexity, and dynamic portfolios," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 37-51.
    10. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kang, Woo-Young & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2021. "Cyber-attacks, spillovers and contagion in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled, 2022. "When bitcoin lost its position: Cryptocurrency uncertainty and the dynamic spillover among cryptocurrencies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Hsu, Shu-Han & Sheu, Chwen & Yoon, Jiho, 2021. "Risk spillovers between cryptocurrencies and traditional currencies and gold under different global economic conditions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    13. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "Robust drivers of Bitcoin price movements: An extreme bounds analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Wang, Xuetong & Fang, Fang & Ma, Shiqun & Xiang, Lijin & Xiao, Zumian, 2024. "Dynamic volatility spillover among cryptocurrencies and energy markets: An empirical analysis based on a multilevel complex network," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    15. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2023. "Predictability of crypto returns: The impact of trading behavior," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    16. Kumar, Ashish & Iqbal, Najaf & Mitra, Subrata Kumar & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Connectedness among major cryptocurrencies in standard times and during the COVID-19 outbreak," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    17. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    18. Toan Luu Duc Huynh, 2019. "Spillover Risks on Cryptocurrency Markets: A Look from VAR-SVAR Granger Causality and Student’s-t Copulas," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-19, April.
    19. Achraf Ghorbel & Wajdi Frikha & Yasmine Snene Manzli, 2022. "Testing for asymmetric non-linear short- and long-run relationships between crypto-currencies and stock markets," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(3), pages 387-425, September.
    20. Andrada-Félix, Julián & Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2020. "Distant or close cousins: Connectedness between cryptocurrencies and traditional currencies volatilities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Connectedness; Forecast; Macroeconometrics; Policy objective; Stablecoin adoption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:109:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322000384. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.