IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v79y2025ics1062940825000853.html

On the connectedness between the uncertainty of central bank digital currency adoption and stablecoins

Author

Listed:
  • Le, Thai Hong
  • Luu, Hiep Ngoc
  • Do, Dinh Dinh
  • Nguyen, Trung-Anh
  • Pham, Toan Canh

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent of connectedness between uncertainty around CBDC adoption and stablecoins. First, by employing the QVAR framework, we assess how the dynamic connectedness between CBDC uncertainty and stablecoins switches across a broad spectrum of uncertainty conditions. Next, we turn to the indirect linkage between stablecoins and CBDC uncertainty by examining the role of the latter as a driver of the connectedness in stablecoin trading activities. Results of the TVP-VAR framework and the quantile-on-quantile regression approach show that during the time of high market sentiment, investors tend to move away from diversification and reserve certain coin(s) instead.

Suggested Citation

  • Le, Thai Hong & Luu, Hiep Ngoc & Do, Dinh Dinh & Nguyen, Trung-Anh & Pham, Toan Canh, 2025. "On the connectedness between the uncertainty of central bank digital currency adoption and stablecoins," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:79:y:2025:i:c:s1062940825000853
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2025.102445
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940825000853
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2025.102445?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Douglas Arner & Raphael Auer & Jon Frost, 2020. "Stablecoins: risks, potential and regulation," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue Autumn.
    2. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "International monetary policy spillovers: Evidence from a time-varying parameter vector autoregression," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    4. Imran Yousaf & Shoaib Ali, 2020. "Discovering interlinkages between major cryptocurrencies using high-frequency data: new evidence from COVID-19 pandemic," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Díaz, Antonio & Esparcia, Carlos & Huélamo, Diego, 2023. "Stablecoins as a tool to mitigate the downside risk of cryptocurrency portfolios," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Yi, Shuyue & Xu, Zishuang & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2018. "Volatility connectedness in the cryptocurrency market: Is Bitcoin a dominant cryptocurrency?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 98-114.
    7. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2021. "Interest rate swaps and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy: A quantile connectedness approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    8. Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Roubaud, David, 2021. "Quantile connectedness in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    9. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2018. "Dynamic connectedness of uncertainty across developed economies: A time-varying approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 63-75.
    10. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    11. Mr. John Kiff & Jihad Alwazir & Sonja Davidovic & Aquiles Farias & Mr. Ashraf Khan & Mr. Tanai Khiaonarong & Majid Malaika & Mr. Hunter K Monroe & Nobu Sugimoto & Hervé Tourpe & Peter Zhou, 2020. "A Survey of Research on Retail Central Bank Digital Currency," IMF Working Papers 2020/104, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Raphael Auer & Rainer Boehme, 2021. "Central bank digital currency: the quest for minimally invasive technology," BIS Working Papers 948, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. David Kuo Chuen Lee & Li Yan & Yu Wang, 2021. "A global perspective on central bank digital currency," China Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 52-66, January.
    14. Matthias Hafner & Marco Henriques Pereira & Helmut Dietl & Juan Beccuti, 2023. "The four types of stablecoins: A comparative analysis," Papers 2308.07041, arXiv.org.
    15. Rubbaniy, Ghulame & Tee, Kienpin & Iren, Perihan & Abdennadher, Sonia, 2022. "Investors’ mood and herd investing: A quantile-on-quantile regression explanation from crypto market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    16. Emilio Barucci & Giancarlo Giuffra Moncayo & Daniele Marazzina, 2022. "Cryptocurrencies and stablecoins: a high-frequency analysis," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 217-239, September.
    17. Saengchote, Kanis & Samphantharak, Krislert, 2024. "Digital money creation and algorithmic stablecoin run," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Sim, Nicholas & Zhou, Hongtao, 2015. "Oil prices, US stock return, and the dependence between their quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-8.
    19. Gregory, Gadzinski & Alessio, Castello & Vito, Liuzzi & Patrice, Sargenti, 2024. "Break a peg! A study of stablecoin co-instability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    20. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Sang Hoon Kang & Tareq Saeed, 2021. "Regime specific spillover across cryptocurrencies and the role of COVID-19," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, December.
    21. Douglas Arner & Raphael Auer & Jon Frost, 2020. "Stablecoins: risks, potential and regulation," Revista de Estabilidad Financiera, Banco de España, issue Autumn.
    22. Douglas Arner & Raphael Auer & Jon Frost, 2020. "Stablecoins: potential, risks and regulation," BIS Working Papers 905, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2021. "EMU risk-synchronisation and financial fragility through the prism of dynamic connectedness," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-14.
    24. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2018. "Return and volatility spillovers among cryptocurrencies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 122-127.
    25. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    26. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2019. "Information interdependence among energy, cryptocurrency and major commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1042-1055.
    27. Tomohiro Ando & Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Yongcheol Shin, 2022. "Quantile Connectedness: Modeling Tail Behavior in the Topology of Financial Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(4), pages 2401-2431, April.
    28. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    29. Wang, Yizhi & Lucey, Brian M. & Vigne, Samuel A. & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "The Effects of Central Bank Digital Currencies News on Financial Markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    30. Bojaj, Martin M. & Muhadinovic, Milica & Bracanovic, Andrej & Mihailovic, Andrej & Radulovic, Mladen & Jolicic, Ivan & Milosevic, Igor & Milacic, Veselin, 2022. "Forecasting macroeconomic effects of stablecoin adoption: A Bayesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    31. Raphael Auer & Jon Frost & Michael Junho Lee & Antoine Martin & Neha Narula, 2021. "Why Central Bank Digital Currencies?," Liberty Street Economics 20211201, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    32. Le, Anh H., 2022. "Central bank digital currency and cryptocurrency in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 114734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Hsu, Shu-Han & Sheu, Chwen & Yoon, Jiho, 2021. "Risk spillovers between cryptocurrencies and traditional currencies and gold under different global economic conditions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    34. Douglas Arner & Raphael Auer & Jon Frost, 2020. "Stablecoins: risks, potential and regulation," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue Autumn.
    35. Ulrich Bindseil, 2019. "Central Bank Digital Currency: Financial System Implications and Control," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(4), pages 303-335, October.
    36. Adalid, Ramón & Álvarez-Blázquez, Álvaro & Assenmacher, Katrin & Burlon, Lorenzo & Dimou, Maria & López-Quiles, Carolina & Martín Fuentes, Natalia & Meller, Barbara & Muñoz, Manuel A. & Radulova, Pety, 2022. "Central bank digital currency and bank intermediation," Occasional Paper Series 293, European Central Bank.
    37. Geuder, Julian & Kinateder, Harald & Wagner, Niklas F., 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as financial bubbles: The case of Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    38. Toni Ahner & Katrin Assenmacher & Peter Hoffmann & Agnese Leonello & Cyril Monnet & Davide Porcellacchia, 2024. "The Economics of Central Bank Digital Currency," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(4), pages 221-274, October.
    39. Jianguo Xu, 2022. "Developments and Implications of Central Bank Digital Currency: The Case of China e‐CNY," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 17(2), pages 235-250, July.
    40. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    41. Corbet, Shaen & Meegan, Andrew & Larkin, Charles & Lucey, Brian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2018. "Exploring the dynamic relationships between cryptocurrencies and other financial assets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 28-34.
    42. Bajra, Ujkan Q. & Aliu, Florin, 2023. "Deciphering the cryptocurrency conundrum: Investigating speculative characteristics and volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    43. Saengchote, Kanis & Putniņš, Talis & Samphantharak, Krislert, 2023. "Does DeFi remove the need for trust? Evidence from a natural experiment in stablecoin lending," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    44. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nehir Balci & Mesut Dogan, 2026. "Quantile connectedness between Russia’s MOEX, geopolitical risks, US–China tensions, and oil prices," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 1-37, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elie Bouri & Mahdi Ghaemi Asl & Sahar Darehshiri & David Gabauer, 2024. "Asymmetric connectedness between conventional and Islamic cryptocurrencies: Evidence from good and bad volatility spillovers," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, December.
    2. Asil Azimli, 2024. "Time-varying spillovers in high-order moments among cryptocurrencies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-39, December.
    3. A. Karadimitropoulou & P. Koulmas & P. Michailides & A. Triantafyllou, 2026. "From Paris to Pandemic: How Climate Risk and Policy Uncertainty Shapes Fossil and Clean Energy Commodities," Post-Print hal-05540979, HAL.
    4. Xu, Danyang & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les & Lin, Boqiang & He, Yongda, 2025. "Exploring the connectedness between major volatility indexes and worldwide sustainable investments," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    5. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled, 2022. "When bitcoin lost its position: Cryptocurrency uncertainty and the dynamic spillover among cryptocurrencies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Stenfors, Alexis & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2022. "Independent policy, dependent outcomes: A game of cross-country dominoes across European yield curves," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Abubakr Naeem, Muhammad & Iqbal, Najaf & Lucey, Brian M. & Karim, Sitara, 2022. "Good versus bad information transmission in the cryptocurrency market: Evidence from high-frequency data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Samarakoon, S.M.R.K. & Pradhan, Rudra P., 2026. "How do return and volatility spillovers shape futures markets? Insights from index, commodity, and carbon emission futures," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(PD).
    9. Bouri, Elie & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2021. "Volatility connectedness of major cryptocurrencies: The role of investor happiness," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    10. Le, Trung H. & Pham, Linh & Do, Hung X., 2023. "Price risk transmissions in the water-energy-food nexus: Impacts of climate risks and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    11. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    12. Nguyen Hong Yen & Le Thanh Ha, 2023. "Interlinkages of cryptocurrency and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic by applying a QVAR model," European Journal of Management and Business Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(1), pages 74-95, March.
    13. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Brahim, Mariem & Carlotti, Jean-Etienne & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mensi, Walid, 2024. "Extreme downside risk connectedness and portfolio hedging among the G10 currencies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    14. Mbarek, Marouene & Msolli, Badreddine, 2025. "Assessing linkages between supply chain tokens and other assets: Evidence from a time-frequency quantile connectedness approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    15. Wafa Masmoudi Kammoun, 2026. "Return and volatility spillover drivers among conventional cryptocurrencies," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-39, March.
    16. Mobeen Ur Rehman & Neeraj Nautiyal & Xuan Vinh Vo & Muhammad Kashif & Sang Hoon Kang, 2026. "Quantile time-frequency connectedness and networks across cryptocurrency markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 1-35, December.
    17. Shoaib Ali & Youssef Manel, 2025. "Unlocking the diversification benefits of DeFi for ASEAN stock market portfolios: a quantile study," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, December.
    18. Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Roubaud, David, 2021. "Quantile connectedness in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    19. Thomas F. P. Wiesen & Lakshya Bharadwaj, 2023. "Cryptocurrency Connectedness: Does Controlling for the Cross-Correlations Matter?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(20), pages 2873-2880, November.
    20. Nourhaine Nefzi & Abir Melki & Sahar Loukil & Ahmed Jeribi, 2026. "How do cryptocurrencies connect? Insights from conventional cryptocurrencies, DeFi, NFTs, and gold-backed cryptocurrencies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:79:y:2025:i:c:s1062940825000853. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.