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Econometric Analysis of the Effect of Oil Price Volatility on Country Economic Indicators: The Case of Turkey

Author

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  • Merve Arslan

    (Halic University, Faculty of Business Administration, Department of Business Administration, Istanbul, Turkey)

  • Hamide Arslan

    (Istanbul, Turkey)

  • Ismail Erkan Celik

    (DoguÅŸ University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Istanbul, Turkey)

Abstract

Developments in crude oil prices are closely followed in world markets and have a significant impact on the conjuncture of world economics. This study aims to investigate the effects of fluctuations in oil prices on the Turkish economy. The data used in this study cover the years 2008-2020. The macroeconomic variables used in the study are GNP, inflation, unemployment, and the current account deficit/GNP ratio. The vector autoregression (VAR) model is used to estimate the effect of volatility observed in oil prices on macroeconomic factors. According to the analysis results, the lagged values of the volatility observed in oil prices were observed to have an effect on Turkey’s inflation level. In addition, the lagged values of Turkey’s unemployment rates were determined to have an effect on its current account deficit and economic growth rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Merve Arslan & Hamide Arslan & Ismail Erkan Celik, 2022. "Econometric Analysis of the Effect of Oil Price Volatility on Country Economic Indicators: The Case of Turkey," Muhasebe Enstitusu Dergisi - Journal of Accounting Institute, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 0(67), pages 71-81, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ist:imeder:v:0:y:2022:i:67:p:71-81
    DOI: 10.26650/MED.1105715
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    References listed on IDEAS

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