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Quasi-Bayesian Model Selection

  • Atsushi Inoue


    (Southern Methodist University)

  • Mototsugu Shintania


    (Vanderbilt University)

In this paper we establish the consistency of the model selection criterion based on the quasi-marginal likelihood obtained from Laplace-type estimators (LTE). We consider cases in which parameters are strongly identified, weakly identified and partially identified. Our Monte Carlo results confirm our consistency results. Our proposed procedure is applied to select among monetary macroeconomic models using US data.

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Paper provided by Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 1402.

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Date of creation: Feb 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:smu:ecowpa:1402
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, P.O. Box 750496, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX 75275-0496
Phone: 214-768-2715
Fax: 214-768-1821
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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Mathias Trabandt & Karl Walentin, 2010. "DSGE models for monetary policy analysis," FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper 2010-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Nason, James M & Cogley, Timothy, 1994. "Testing the Implications of Long-Run Neutrality for Monetary Business Cycle Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S37-70, Suppl. De.
  3. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, 05.
  4. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
  6. Sin, Chor-Yiu & White, Halbert, 1996. "Information criteria for selecting possibly misspecified parametric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 207-225.
  7. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2009. "Bayesian and Frequentist Inference in Partially Identified Models," NBER Working Papers 14882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2013. "Unemployment and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 19265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
  10. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "On the selection of forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
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