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A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of an Oil Price Increase in South Africa

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  • McDonald, Scott
  • van Schoor, Melt

Abstract

Following recent international oil price increases, there has been considerable interest in how this external factor can affect the South African economy. This paper reports results from a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of an increase (up to 30 per cent) in international oil prices. Background information is provided, which puts the magnitude of the price variations in historical context. We describe the procedure used to adjust the social accounting matrix (SAM), which is used to calibrate the model, to account explicitly for crude oil. Then, the effects of the crude oil price increase are traced through the economy, from markets, industries through to factors, households and the government. Predictably, the shock hurts the economy: a 20 per cent increase results in a drop in GDP of 1 per cent. It is found that the major impact is to be found in the petroleum industry itself, whereas the effects on liquid fuel dependent industries such as transport is not as large as may be supposed. In agriculture, it is found that the depreciating currency has a positive effect, offsetting most of the negative effects of higher petroleum prices, particularly in export-oriented areas. In a long-term scenario, capital and skilled labour becomes mobile, and the results suggest that such reallocation may not be to the overall advantage of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • McDonald, Scott & van Schoor, Melt, 2005. "A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of an Oil Price Increase in South Africa," Working Paper Series 15633, PROVIDE Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:provwp:15633
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.15633
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    2. McDonald, Scott, 2003. "The PROVIDE Project Standard Computable General Equilibrium Model," Technical Paper Series 15627, PROVIDE Project.
    3. Kilkenny, Maureen, 1991. "Computable General Equilibrium Modeling of Agricultural Policies: Documentation of the 30-Sector FPGE GAMS Model of the United States," Staff Reports 278539, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kangni Kpodar, 2011. "Impact de l'accroissement du prix des produits pétroliers sur la distribution des revenus au Mali," CERDI Working papers halshs-00557133, HAL.
    2. Sahlén, Linda, 2008. "The Impacts of Food- and Oil Price Shocks on the Namibian Economy: the Role of Water Scarcity," Umeå Economic Studies 758, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    3. Delfin S. Go & John Page, 2008. "Africa at a Turning Point? : Growth, Aid, and External Shocks," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6421.
    4. repec:aer:wpaper:346 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hélène Maisonnave & Bernard Decaluwe & Margaret Chitiga, 2016. "Does South African Affirmative Action Policy Reduce Poverty? A CGE Analysis," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(3), pages 212-227, September.
    6. Kangni Kpodar & Calvin Djiofack, 2010. "The Distributional Effects of Oil Price Changes on Household Income: Evidence from Mali," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 19(2), pages 205-236, March.
    7. Akinsola Motunrayo O. & Odhiambo N. M., 2022. "The Impact of Oil Price on Economic Growth in Middle-Income Oil-Importing Countries: A Non-Linear Panel ARDL Approach," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 10(1), pages 29-48, September.
    8. Asiya Maskaeva & Mgeni Msafiri, 2021. "Youth unemployment hysteresis in South Africa: Macro-micro analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-20, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Fofana, Ismaël, 2012. "Including women in the policy responses to high oil prices: a case study of South Africa," IFPRI discussion papers 1169, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Fofana, Ismaél & Chitiga, Margaret & Mabugu, Ramos, 2009. "Oil prices and the South African economy: A macro-meso-micro analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5509-5518, December.
    11. Amrita Ganguly & Koushik Das, 2016. "Impacts of Falling Crude Oil Prices and Reduction of Energy Subsidies on the Indian Economy: A CGE Modelling Approach," Vision, , vol. 20(4), pages 345-360, December.
    12. Mr. Kangni R Kpodar, 2006. "Distributional Effects of Oil Price Changeson Household Expenditures: Evidence From Mali," IMF Working Papers 2006/091, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Sahlén, Linda, 2009. "Essays on Environmental and Development Economics - Public Policy, Resource Prices and Global Warming," Umeå Economic Studies 762, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    14. Bhattacharyya, Ranajoy & Ganguly, Amrita, 2017. "Cross subsidy removal in electricity pricing in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 181-190.
    15. Carolyn Chisadza & Janneke Dlamini & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2013. "The Impact of Oil Shocks on the South African Economy," Working Papers 201311, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of Oil Shocks in a Small Open Economy New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for South Africa," Working Papers 201652, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    17. Birouke Tefera & Frehiwot Worku & Zewdu Ayalew, 2012. "Implications of Oil Price Shocks and Subsidizing Oil Prices to the Ethiopian Economy: A CGE Analysis," Working Papers 008, Policy Studies Institute.

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