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The transition of China's monetary policy regime: Before and after the four trillion RMB stimulus

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  • Fu, Buben
  • Wang, Bin

Abstract

This paper studies the monetary policy of China in a flexible time-varying parameter vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility, with a focus on the monetary policy regime change around 2009 when the four trillion RMB stimulus started. We find that China has been transiting from targeting money quantity to targeting interest rate since 2009. The interest rate policy instrument played a bigger role in the central bank's monetary policy toolbox. We check an alternative identification strategy and a couple of different model settings to show the robustness of this conclusion.

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  • Fu, Buben & Wang, Bin, 2020. "The transition of China's monetary policy regime: Before and after the four trillion RMB stimulus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 273-303.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:89:y:2020:i:c:p:273-303
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.10.022
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    Cited by:

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    2. Makram El-Shagi & Yishuo Ma, 2021. "Nine blind men and the PBoC," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2021/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    3. Yulin Liu & Xincheng Zhu & Yuhao Wang, 2023. "Revisiting and evaluation of the index of sustainable economic welfare based on artificial intelligence: data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2003 to 2019," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 3123-3152, April.
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    5. Chen, Yunping & Chen, Huanhuan & Li, Guorong & Jiao, Dongdan & Xu, Xiangyun, 2021. "Time-varying effect of macro-prudential policies on household credit growth: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 241-254.
    6. Sun, Weihong & Liu, Ding, 2023. "Great moderation with Chinese characteristics: Uncovering the role of monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; TVP-VAR-SV; Four trillion RMB stimulus; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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