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Withstanding great recession like China

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  • Yi Wen
  • Jing Wu

Abstract

The Great Recession was characterized by two related phenomena: (i) a jobless recovery and (ii) a permanent drop in aggregate output. Data show that the United States, Europe, and even countries with lesser ties to the international financial system have suffered large permanent losses in aggregate output and employment since the financial crisis, despite unprecedented monetary injections. However, the symptoms of the Great Recession were not observed in China, despite a 45% permanent drop in its exports one of the largest trade collapses in world history since the Great Depression. Our empirical analysis shows that China's success in escaping the Great Recession is attributable to its bold and powerful 4 trillion renminbi stimulus package launched in late 2008. We study the precise channels through which the stimulus programs work in China. We also construct a simple model to rationalize the dramatically different impacts of stimulus programs across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi Wen & Jing Wu, 2014. "Withstanding great recession like China," Working Papers 2014-7, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2014-007
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2014.007
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    1. Comment la Chine a défié la Grande Récession
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-03-15 22:26:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Shuonan Zhang, 2024. "State‐owned enterprises and entrusted lending: Economic growth and business cycles in China," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 197-222, January.
    2. Xue, Wenjun & Yilmazkuday, Hakan & Taylor, Jason E., 2020. "The impact of China’s fiscal and monetary policy responses to the great recession: An analysis of firm-level Chinese data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    3. Dan Costin NIȚESCU & Cristian ANGHEL, 2023. "Impact of Macroeconomic and Banking Indicators on Lending Rates - A Global Perspective," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 64-77, March.
    4. Hanley, Douglas & Li, Jiancheng & Wu, Mingqin, 2022. "High-speed railways and collaborative innovation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. Xincheng Zhu & Yulin Liu & Xin Fang, 2022. "Revisiting the Sustainable Economic Welfare Growth in China: Provincial Assessment Based on the ISEW," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 279-306, July.
    6. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2015. "Assessing the impact of the Chinese stimulus package at home and abroad: A damp squib?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 137-162.
    7. Garcia-Barragan, Fernando & Liu, Guangling, 2021. "Great recession, exports crunch, and China's fiscal stimulus in a global zero lower bound environment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Mengzhu Zhang & Si Qiao & Xiang Yan, 2021. "The secondary circuit of capital and the making of the suburban property boom in postcrisis Chinese cities," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 53(6), pages 1331-1355, September.
    9. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Local Crowding‐Out in China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2855-2898, December.
    10. Fu, Buben & Wang, Bin, 2020. "The transition of China's monetary policy regime: Before and after the four trillion RMB stimulus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 273-303.
    11. Liu, Jinyu & Wang, Zhengwei & Zhu, Wuxiang, 2021. "Does privatization reform alleviate ownership discrimination? Evidence from the Split-share structure reform in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. King Yoong Lim & Shuonan Zhang, 2023. "Optimal fiscal management in an economy with resource revenue‐financed government‐linked companies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2202-2225, April.
    13. Lin Liu, 2021. "U.S. Economic Uncertainty Shocks and China’s Economic Activities: A Time-Varying Perspective," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.
    14. Yi Wen, 2021. "The Poverty of Macroeconomics --- What the Chemical Revolution Tells Us about Neoclassical Production Function," Working Papers 2021-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Emanuele Felice & Iacopo Odoardi & Dario D’Ingiullo, 2023. "The Chinese Inland-Coastal Inequality: The Role of Human Capital and the 2007–2008 Crisis Watershed," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(2), pages 761-788, July.
    16. Andrea Fracasso & Kun Jiang, 2022. "The performance of private companies in China before and during the global financial crisis: firms’ characteristics and entrepreneurs’ attributes," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 803-836, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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