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Great recession, exports crunch, and China's fiscal stimulus in a global zero lower bound environment

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  • Garcia-Barragan, Fernando
  • Liu, Guangling

Abstract

This paper develops an open economy model and replicates the exports crunch occurred in China during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. We show that in a global zero lower bond (ZLB) environment, fiscal stimulus significantly mitigates the negative effects of exports crunch during the Great Recession. In a global ZLB environment, fiscal stimulus produces more or less the same multiplier as during normal times, which are both greater than one. The state-owned enterprises’ production channel produces a spill-over effect on the private-owned enterprises’ production and amplifies the multiplier effects of fiscal stimulus. Implementation delay enhances the multiplier effects of fiscal stimulus. Compared to normal times, the welfare gain associated with fiscal stimulus in a global ZLB environment increases significantly, whereby implementation delay slightly weakens this welfare enhancement.

Suggested Citation

  • Garcia-Barragan, Fernando & Liu, Guangling, 2021. "Great recession, exports crunch, and China's fiscal stimulus in a global zero lower bound environment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:75:y:2021:i:c:s104900782100052x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2021.101323
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multiplier; Government investment; Great Recession; Zero lower bound; Emerging market economies; Chinese economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures

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