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The effects of fiscal policy at the effective lower bound

Author

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  • Dennis Bonam
  • Jakob de Haan
  • Beau Soederhuizen

Abstract

We estimate the effects of government consumption and investment shocks during prolonged episodes of low interest rates, which we consider as proxy for the effective lower bound. Using a panel VAR model for 17 advanced countries, in which we include real government spending, output, inflation, and the real interest rate, we find that both the cumulative government consumption and investment multipliers are significantly higher (and exceed unity) when interest rates are persistently low. These results are robust for using different threshold values for the nominal interest rate or the length of the period with low interest rates to proxy the ELB.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Bonam & Jakob de Haan & Beau Soederhuizen, 2017. "The effects of fiscal policy at the effective lower bound," DNB Working Papers 565, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:565
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Amendola, Adalgiso & Di Serio, Mario & Fragetta, Matteo & Melina, Giovanni, 2020. "The euro-area government spending multiplier at the effective lower bound," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. KLEIN, Mathias & WINKLER, Roland, 2018. "The government spending multiplier at the zero lower bound: International evidence from historical data," Working Papers 2018001, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal multipliers; effective lower bound; panel VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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