IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/feddwp/1301.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal sentiment and the weak recovery from the Great Recession: a quantitative exploration

Author

Listed:
  • Finn E. Kydland
  • Carlos E. Zarazaga

Abstract

The U.S. economy isn' t recovering from the deep Great Recession of 2008?2009 with the strength predicted by models that incorporate a variety of shocks and frictions in the basic analytical framework of the neoclassical growth model. It has been argued that the counterfactual predictions shouldn 't be attributed to inherent features of that framework, but to the omission from the analysis of the prospects of an imminent switch to a higher taxes regime prompted by the unprecedented fiscal challenges faced by the U.S. economy in peacetime. The paper explores quantitatively this fiscal sentiment hypothesis. The main finding is that the hypothesis can account for a substantial fraction of the decline in investment and labor input in the aftermath of the Great Recession, relative to their pre-recession trends. These results require, however, a quali cation: The perceived higher taxes must fall almost exclusively on capital income.

Suggested Citation

  • Finn E. Kydland & Carlos E. Zarazaga, 2013. "Fiscal sentiment and the weak recovery from the Great Recession: a quantitative exploration," Working Papers 1301, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1301
    DOI: 10.24149/wp1301
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/papers/2013/wp1301.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ellen R. McGrattan, 2012. "Capital Taxation During the U.S. Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1515-1550.
    2. Finn E. Kydland & Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga, 2002. "Argentina's Lost Decade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 152-165, January.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    4. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    5. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 238-271, February.
    6. Trabandt, Mathias & Uhlig, Harald, 2011. "The Laffer curve revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 305-327.
    7. Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "Why do Americans work so much more than Europeans?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 28(Jul), pages 2-13.
    8. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    9. Claudia Goldin, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women's Employment, Education, and Family," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 1-21, May.
    10. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    11. Bruce C. Fallick & Jonathan F. Pingle, 2007. "The effect of population aging on aggregate labor supply in the United States," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, number 52.
    12. Remzi Kaygusuz, 2010. "Taxes and Female Labor Supply," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(4), pages 725-741, October.
    13. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
    14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    15. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    16. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2014. "Policy risk and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 68-85.
    17. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2012. "The stock market crash of 2008 caused the Great Recession: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 693-707.
    18. Simona Cociuba & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2010. "Trends in U.S. Hours and the Labor Wedge," Staff Working Papers 10-28, Bank of Canada.
    19. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Erratum: Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1186-1186, April.
    20. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.
    21. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 458-477, July.
    22. Goldin, Claudia, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women’s Employment, Education, and Family," Scholarly Articles 2943933, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    23. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2004. "New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 779-816, August.
    24. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2007. "Great depressions of the twentieth century," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, number 2007gdott.
    25. Gomme, Paul & Rupert, Peter, 2007. "Theory, measurement and calibration of macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 460-497, March.
    26. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 81-156.
    27. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien & Gomme, Paul, 2019. "Debt hangover in the aftermath of the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 107-133.
    2. Ray C. Fair, 2018. "Explaining theSlowU.S.Recovery: 2010–2017," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2124, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2020. "Economic Policy Uncertainty: Persistence and Cross-Country Linkages," CESifo Working Paper Series 8289, CESifo.
    4. Hu, Ruiyang & Zarazaga, Carlos E., 2018. "Fiscal stabilization and the credibility of the U.S. budget sequestration spending austerity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 54-66.
    5. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien & Gomme, Paul, 2019. "Debt hangover in the aftermath of the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 107-133.
    6. Carlos E. Zarazaga, 2013. "The prospect of higher taxes and weak job growth during the recovery from the great recession: macro versus micro Frisch elasticities," Working Papers 1302, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Ruiyang Hu & Carlos E. Zarazaga, 2016. "Fiscal stabilization and the credibility of the U.S. budget sequestration spending austerity," Working Papers 1616, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Dec 2016.
    8. Ray C. Fair, 2018. "Explaining the slow U.S. recovery: 2010–2017," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 184-194, October.
    9. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien & Gomme, Paul, 2019. "Debt hangover in the aftermath of the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 107-133.
    10. Carlos Zarazaga & Ruiyang Hu, 2017. "Fiscal Stabilization and the Credibility of the U.S. Budget Sequestration Spending Austerity," 2017 Meeting Papers 250, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien & Gomme, Paul, 2019. "Debt hangover in the aftermath of the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 107-133.
    12. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien & Gomme, Paul, 2019. "Debt hangover in the aftermath of the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 107-133.
    13. Carlos E. Zarazaga, 2014. "Macroelasticities and the U.S. sequestration budget cuts," Working Papers 1412, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Nov 2014.
    14. Hansen, G.D. & Ohanian, L.E., 2016. "Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.),Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2043-2130, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1301. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbdaus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.