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The effect of population aging on aggregate labor supply in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Bruce C. Fallick
  • Jonathan F. Pingle

Abstract

Output growth is determined by growth in labor productivity and growth in labor input. Over the past two decades, technological developments have changed how many economists think about growth in labor productivity. However, in the coming decades, the aging of the population will change how economists think about the growth in labor input in the United States. As the oldest baby boomers born in 1946 turned 50, then 55, and then 60, an important economic change has slowly surfaced: these people have become less likely to participate in the labor force. While this shift was obscured by a labor market slump in 2002, the aging of the American population began to put downward pressure on aggregate labor supply, marking the start of what is likely to be a sharp deceleration in labor input that will last another half-century.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce C. Fallick & Jonathan F. Pingle, 2007. "The effect of population aging on aggregate labor supply in the United States," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, number 52.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbmo:2007teopaoalsitu
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    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/conf/conf52/conf52b.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2003. "The Rise in the Disability Rolls and the Decline in Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 157-206.
    2. Bruce C. Fallick & Jonathan F. Pingle, 2006. "A cohort-based model of labor force participation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan O. KITOV, 2008. "The Driving Force of Labor Force Participation in Developed Countries," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 203-222.
    2. Bruce Fallick & Charles Fleischman & Jonathan Pingle, 2010. "The Effect of Population Aging on the Aggregate Labor Market," NBER Chapters,in: Labor in the New Economy, pages 377-417 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kydland, Finn E. & Zarazaga, Carlos E.J.M., 2016. "Fiscal sentiment and the weak recovery from the Great Recession: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 109-125.
    4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 81-156.
    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor supply ; Baby boom generation;

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