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Oil Prices and State Unemployment Rates

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  • Mohamad B. Karaki

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of oil price shocks on U.S. state-level unemployment rates. First, using a test of symmetry, I evaluate whether the relationship between oil prices and state unemployment rates is symmetric. I find no evidence against the null of symmetry after accounting for data mining. Second, I use a symmetric structural VAR model to analyze the effect of oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks and oil-specific demand shocks on state unemployment. I find that an adverse supply shock triggers increases in unemployment, whereas a positive aggregate demand shock reduces the unemployment rate across most U.S. states. I also show that oil-specific demand shocks have little effect on state unemployment. Finally, I dig into the historical contribution of the various oil shocks to the changes in state unemployment rates during the shale boom period. I find that aggregate demand shocks contributed the most to the change of unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamad B. Karaki, 2018. "Oil Prices and State Unemployment Rates," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(3), pages 25-50, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:39:y:2018:i:3:p:25-50
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.3.mkar
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Herrera, Ana María & Lagalo, Latika Gupta & Wada, Tatsuma, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks And Industrial Production: Is The Relationship Linear?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 472-497, November.
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    8. Edelstein Paul & Kilian Lutz, 2007. "The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses about the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-41, November.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ryan Hanson & Ana María Herrera, 2025. "The Effect of Oil News Shocks on Job Creation and Destruction," Working Papers 25-06, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    4. SHANG, Yunfeng & XIA, Zhongwei & XIAO, Zhongyi & SHUM, Wai Yan, 2024. "An analysis of the time-lag effect of global geopolitical risk on business cycle based on visibility graph technique," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. Clement Oteng & Omowumi Iledare & Joshua Sebu, 2024. "Vulnerability of the Agricultural Commodity Markets in Ghana to Global Oil Price Fluctuations: An Empirical Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(1), pages 21582440231, March.
    6. Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan & Aysegul Uckun Ozkan, 2026. "The effects of oil news shock on sectoral employment in the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 70(3), pages 1-27, March.
    7. Priya, Pragati & Sharma, Chandan, 2024. "On transmission channels of energy prices and monetary policy shocks to household consumption: Evidence from India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).

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