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Does the exogeneity of oil prices matter in the oil price-macro-economy relationship for Ghana?

Author

Listed:
  • Mutawakil M. Zankawah

    (Kingston University London)

  • Chris Stewart

    (Kingston University London)

Abstract

Using annual data from 1971 to 2014 we consider whether the relationship between crude oil prices and the macro-economy in the relatively small economy of Ghana is affected by the treatment of crude oil prices as exogenous or endogenous. We use vector autoregressions, vector error-correction models, scenario-based dynamic forecasting, and autoregressive distributive lag specifications. There is little evidence that international crude oil prices have a significant negative effect on Ghana’s output in either the short-run and long-run, regardless of whether crude oil prices are treated as exogenous or endogenous. This implies that increases in crude oil prices do not put a binding constraint on the monetary authorities to loosen monetary policy to offset its adverse effect on output. If inflation is a priority, policy makers could focus on inflation stabilization by tightening monetary policy when oil prices rise.

Suggested Citation

  • Mutawakil M. Zankawah & Chris Stewart, 2019. "Does the exogeneity of oil prices matter in the oil price-macro-economy relationship for Ghana?," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-2, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:kngedp:2019_002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ghana; oil prices; exogeneity; macro-economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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