Revisiting the Twin Deficits Hypothesis: The Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on the Current Account
This paper investigates the effect of fiscal consolidation on the current account. We examine contemporaneous policy documents, including Budget Speeches, Budgets, and IMF and OECD reports, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated primarily by the desire to reduce the budget deficit, and not by a response to the short-term economic outlook or the current account. Estimation results based on this measure of fiscal policy changes suggest that a 1 percent of GDP fiscal consolidation raises the current account balance-to-GDP ratio by about 0.6 percentage point, supporting the twin deficits hypothesis. This effect is substantially larger than that obtained using standard measures of the fiscal policy stance, such as the change in the cyclically adjusted primary balance.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 59 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/|
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/41308/PS2|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- S M Ali Abbas & Jacques Bouhga-Hagbe & Antonio Fatás & Paolo Mauro & Ricardo C Velloso, 2011.
"Fiscal Policy and the Current Account,"
IMF Economic Review,
Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(4), pages 603-629, November.
- International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 10/121, .
- Ali Abbas, S.M. & Bouhga-Hagbe, Jacques & Fatás, Antonio & Mauro, Paolo & Velloso, Ricardo C., 2010. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 7859, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2008. "The Effects of Public Spending Shocks on Trade Balances and Budget Deficits in the European Union," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 414-423, 04-05.
- Alesina, Alberto Francesco & Ardagna, Silvia, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," Scholarly Articles 22801844, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005.
"Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World "Savings Glut","
NBER Working Papers
11761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007. "Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June.
- Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel & Müller, Gernot J., 2010.
"Productivity shocks, budget deficits and the current account,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1562-1579, December.
- Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel & Müller, Gernot J., 2005. "Productivity shocks, budget deficits and the current account," Working Paper Series 0509, European Central Bank.
- Daniel Leigh & Andrea Pescatori & Jaime Guajardo, 2011. "Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 11/158, .
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:59:y:2011:i:4:p:582-602. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.