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Fiscal Adjustment, The Real Exchange Rate and Australia's External Imbalance

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  • Alberto Alesina
  • David W. R. Gruen
  • Matthew T. Jones

Abstract

This article examines issues of relevance to Australia's external imbalance. We investigate the sharp fiscal consolidation over the past five years and examine why it did not reduce the current account deficit. We show that a disproportionate part of the fiscal consolidation was achieved by cutting public investment spending, and we discuss some of the negative consequences of such cuts. We compare the macroeconomic behaviour of six OECD countries which have recently increased net government savings. It has been a common experience that an increase in net government saving has not been associated with a reduction in the current account deficit. For Australia, we establish that the link between fiscal consolidation and a smaller current account deficit was severed by a private sector investment surge. This leads us to examine the behaviour of the relative price critical to the allocation of this investment between the traded and non‐traded sectors ‐ the real exchange rate. Over the medium term, we argue that a substantial real depreciation is necessary as part of the adjustment required to stabilise the ratio of net external liabilities to GDP.

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  • Alberto Alesina & David W. R. Gruen & Matthew T. Jones, 1991. "Fiscal Adjustment, The Real Exchange Rate and Australia's External Imbalance," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 24(3), pages 38-51, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:24:y:1991:i:3:p:38-51
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00396.x
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    1. Amine Lahiani & Ameni Mtibaa & Foued Gabsi, 2022. "Fiscal Consolidation, Social Sector Expenditures and Twin Deficit Hypothesis: Evidence from Emerging and Middle-Income Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(4), pages 710-747, December.
    2. John Bluedorn & Daniel Leigh, 2011. "Revisiting the Twin Deficits Hypothesis: The Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on the Current Account," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(4), pages 582-602, November.
    3. Hamzeh Arabzadeh, 2016. "The political economy of twin deficits and wage setting centralization," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2016017, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    4. Alberto Alesina & David W. R. Gruen & Matthew T. Jones, 1991. "Fiscal Adjustment, The Real Exchange Rate and Australia's External Imbalance," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 24(3), pages 38-51, July.
    5. David W.R. Gruen, 1991. "The Effect of Steady Inflation on Interest Rates and the Real Exchange Rate in a World with Free Capital Flows," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9101, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. David Gruen & Geoffrey Shuetrim, 1994. "Internationalisation and the Macroeconomy," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe & Jacqueline Dwyer (ed.),International Intergration of the Australian Economy, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Christian Breuer & Chang Woon Nam, 2020. "Fiscal Consolidation and the Current Account: OECD Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 8071, CESifo.
    8. Matthew Cumberworth & Ross Milbourne, 1996. "External Debt and Liabilities: Evidence from a Cross Section of Countries," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(218), pages 201-213, September.
    9. Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham, 1996. "Public Capital and Private Production in Australia," MPRA Paper 52110, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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