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Consumption and Permanent Income: The Australian Case

Author

Listed:
  • Warwick J. McKibbin

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Anthony J. Richards

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

The sharemarket crash of October 1987 has raised the question of the effect of a change in share prices on real consumption expenditure. This paper examines this issue by examining the role of permanent income or wealth in explaining the behaviour of aggregate consumption expenditure in Australia. Two approaches to testing the permanent income hypothesis are used. The first applies extensions to the method proposed by Hall (1978) and the second follows Hayashi (1981). Both approaches, using a variety of tests, give strong support for the permanent income hypothesis. In testing the relative explanatory power of permanent versus current income, we find that between 50 per cent and 70 per cent of consumption expenditure is consistent with the permanent income hypothesis and the remainder is explained by current income. It is argued in the paper that although consumption expenditure seemed unaffected by the sharemarket crash, this outcome is still consistent with the permanent income hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Warwick J. McKibbin & Anthony J. Richards, 1988. "Consumption and Permanent Income: The Australian Case," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8808, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp8808
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    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1988/8808.html
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    Cited by:

    1. Sousa, Ricardo M., 2009. "Wealth effects on consumption: evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 1050, European Central Bank.
    2. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler, 2007. "Housing Wealth, Stock Market Wealth and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 117-130, June.
    3. de Brouwer,Gordon, 1999. "Financial Integration in East Asia," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521651486, September.
    4. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Vansteenkiste, Isabel S., 2012. "Wealth effects in emerging market economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 155-166.
    5. Alberto Alesina & David W. R. Gruen & Matthew T. Jones, 1991. "Fiscal Adjustment, The Real Exchange Rate and Australia's External Imbalance," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 24(3), pages 38-51, July.
    6. LAURA BERGER‐THOMSON & ELAINE CHUNG & REBECCA McKIBBIN, 2010. "Estimating Marginal Propensities to Consume in Australia Using Micro Data," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(s1), pages 49-60, September.
    7. Guy Debelle & Bruce Preston, 1995. "Consumption, Investment and International Linkages," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9512, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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