Flattening of the Phillips curve and the role of the oil price: An unobserved component model for the USA and Australia
We used the unobserved component model of Harvey (1989, 2011) to estimate the Phillips curve for the USA and Australia, augmenting it with the oil price. Our results show that while the coefficient of demand pressure and the intercept decreased, the coefficient of the oil price increased. Therefore, the oil price is likely to play a significant role in future inflation rates.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Roberts, John M, 2006.
"Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics,"
812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007.
"Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, 02.
- Blanchard, Olivier J & Galí, Jordi, 2005. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 5375, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2005. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 11806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Working Papers 243, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Real wage rigidities and the new Keynesian model," Economics Working Papers 912, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2005.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Real wage rigidities and the New Keynesian model," Working Papers 05-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
- Gruben, William C. & McLeod, Darryl, 2002. "Capital account liberalization and inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 221-225, October.
- Ken Kuttner & Tim Robinson, 2008.
"Understanding the Flattening Phillips Curve,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp2008-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.
- Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008.
"Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S,"
NBER Working Papers
13749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John C.B. Cooper, 2003. "Price elasticity of demand for crude oil: estimates for 23 countries," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 27(1), pages 1-8, 03.
- Harvey, A., 2008.
"Modeling the Phillips curve with unobserved components,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0805, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Andrew Harvey, 2011. "Modelling the Phillips curve with unobserved components," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 7-17.
- Doyle, Matthew & Beaudry, Paul, 2000. "What Happened to the Phillips Curve in the 1990s in Canada," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10286, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007.
NBER Working Papers
13147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Russell, Bill, 2011.
"Non-stationary inflation and panel estimates of United States short and long-run Phillips curves,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 406-419, September.
- Bill Russell, 2007. "Non-Stationary Inflation and Panel Estimates of United States Short and Long-run Phillips curves," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 200, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2009.
09-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Commandeur, Jacques J.F. & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2007. "An Introduction to State Space Time Series Analysis," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199228874, December.
- John C. Williams, 2006. "Inflation persistence in an era of well-anchored inflation expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct13.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:117:y:2012:i:1:p:259-262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.