IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Flattening of the Phillips curve and the role of the oil price: An unobserved component model for the USA and Australia

  • Paradiso, Antonio
  • Rao, B. Bhaskara

We used the unobserved component model of Harvey (1989, 2011) to estimate the Phillips curve for the USA and Australia, augmenting it with the oil price. Our results show that while the coefficient of demand pressure and the intercept decreased, the coefficient of the oil price increased. Therefore, the oil price is likely to play a significant role in future inflation rates.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 117 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 259-262

in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:117:y:2012:i:1:p:259-262
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
  2. Ken Kuttner & Tim Robinson, 2008. "Understanding the Flattening Phillips Curve," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  3. John C. Williams, 2006. "Inflation persistence in an era of well-anchored inflation expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct13.
  4. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Real wage rigidities and the new Keynesian model," Economics Working Papers 912, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2005.
  5. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2010. "Inflation Persistence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 9, pages 423-486 Elsevier.
  6. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
  7. Doyle, Matthew & Beaudry, Paul, 2000. "What Happened to the Phillips Curve in the 1990s in Canada," Staff General Research Papers 10286, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  8. Gruben, William C. & McLeod, Darryl, 2002. "Capital account liberalization and inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 221-225, October.
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 13147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Harvey, A., 2008. "Modeling the Phillips curve with unobserved components," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0805, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  11. Bill Russell, 2007. "Non-Stationary Inflation and Panel Estimates of United States Short and Long-run Phillips curves," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 200, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  12. Roberts, John M, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics," MPRA Paper 812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Commandeur, Jacques J.F. & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2007. "An Introduction to State Space Time Series Analysis," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199228874.
  14. John C.B. Cooper, 2003. "Price elasticity of demand for crude oil: estimates for 23 countries," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 27(1), pages 1-8, 03.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:117:y:2012:i:1:p:259-262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.