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Flattening of the Phillips Curve and the Role of Oil Price: An Unobserved Components Model for the USA and Australia

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  • Paradiso, Antonio
  • Rao, B. Bhaskara

Abstract

We use the unobserved components model of Harvey (1989 and 2011) to estimate the Phillips curve (PC) for the USA and Australia, by augmenting it with oil prices. We found that the level coefficient of inflation and the coefficient of demand pressure have declined and contributed to the flattening of the Phillips curve. But the coefficient of oil prices has increased and has partly offset these effects. Therefore, oil prices are likely to play a significant role in future inflation rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Paradiso, Antonio & Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2011. "Flattening of the Phillips Curve and the Role of Oil Price: An Unobserved Components Model for the USA and Australia," MPRA Paper 29606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29606
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29606/1/MPRA_paper_29606.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John M. Roberts, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
    2. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2010. "Inflation Persistence," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 9, pages 423-486 Elsevier.
    3. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, February.
    4. Commandeur, Jacques J.F. & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2007. "An Introduction to State Space Time Series Analysis," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199228874.
    5. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
    6. Andrew Harvey, 2011. "Modelling the Phillips curve with unobserved components," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 7-17.
    7. Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.
    8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 317-334, December.
    9. John C. Williams, 2006. "Inflation persistence in an era of well-anchored inflation expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct13.
    10. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
    11. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
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    Keywords

    Unobserved components; Harvey; USA; Australia; Flattening of the Phillips curve and Oil prices;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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