IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2017i3p5-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are Suicide Rate Fluctuations Transitory or Permanent? Panel KSS Unit Root Test with a Fourier Function through the Sequential Panel Selection Method

Author

Listed:
  • Tsangyao CHANG

    (Department of Fiance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, TAIWAN and Department of Business Administration, CTBC Financial Management College, Tainan, TAIWAN.)

  • Yifei CAI

    (School of Economics, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, CHINA.)

  • Wen-Yi CHEN

    (Department of Senior Citizen Service Management, National Taichung University of Science and Technology, Taichung, Taiwan.)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine whether suicide shocks are transitory or permanent in 23 OECD countries. The Panel KSS Unit Root Test with a Fourier Function through the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM) that allow us to control for structural breaks and nonlinearity as well as cross-section dependency and heterogeneity is applied to test whether suicide rates across 23 OECD countries for the period from 1961 to 2006 are stationary. The SPSM classifies the whole panel into a group of stationary series and a group of non-stationary series that is very suitable to identify how many and which series in the panel are stationary processes. The empirical results from several conventional unit root tests indicate that the suicide rates for the OECD countries are non-stationary. Nevertheless, when the proposed panel unit root test is used to test for the unit root hypothesis of suicide rates, we find that the suicide rates are stationary in 7 out of the 23 OECD countries. Our results thereby point out the importance of the proper modelling of both structural breaks and nonlinearities to test for the unit root hypothesis of suicide rates. These findings also imply that suicide rates in these OECD countries are overall not transitory and the government should progressively intervene into unexpected shocks that would increase suicide rates for suicide prevention.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsangyao CHANG & Yifei CAI & Wen-Yi CHEN, 2017. "Are Suicide Rate Fluctuations Transitory or Permanent? Panel KSS Unit Root Test with a Fourier Function through the Sequential Panel Selection Method," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-17, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2017:i:3:p:5-17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_17/rjef3_2017p5-17.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-Pao Wu & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Are house prices in South Africa really nonstationary? Evidence from SPSM-based panel KSS test with a Fourier function," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 32-53, January.
    2. Chang, Yoosoon, 2004. "Bootstrap unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 263-293, June.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    4. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    5. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, July.
    6. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin & Andy Snell, 2003. "Testing for Cointegration in Nonlinear STAR Error Correction Models," Working Papers 497, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    8. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin & Andy Snell, 2003. "Testing for Cointegration in Nonlinear STAR Error Correction Models," Working Papers 497, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    9. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
    10. Allison Milner & Andrew Page & Anthony D LaMontagne, 2013. "Long-Term Unemployment and Suicide: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(1), pages 1-6, January.
    11. Janice Boucher Breuer & Robert McNown & Myles S. Wallace, 2001. "Misleading Inferences from Panel Unit‐Root Tests with an Illustration from Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 482-493, August.
    12. Diebold, Francis X & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Unit-Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 265-273, July.
    13. Chortareas, Georgios & Kapetanios, George, 2009. "Getting PPP right: Identifying mean-reverting real exchange rates in panels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-404, February.
    14. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    15. Chen, Joe & Choi, Yun Jeong & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2009. "How is suicide different in Japan?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 140-150, March.
    16. Joe Chen & Yun Jeong Choi & Kohta Mori & Yasuyuki Sawada & Saki Sugano, 2012. "Socio‐Economic Studies On Suicide: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 271-306, April.
    17. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    18. repec:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:3:p:482-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Ucar, Nuri & Omay, Tolga, 2009. "Testing for unit root in nonlinear heterogeneous panels," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 5-8, July.
    20. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    21. Chang, Tsangyao & Chen, Wen-Yi, 2017. "Revisiting the relationship between suicide and unemployment: Evidence from linear and nonlinear cointegration," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 266-278.
    22. Janice Boucher Breuer & Robert McNown & Myles Wallace, 2006. "Misleading Inferences from Panel Unit Root Tests: a Reply," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 512-516, August.
    23. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    24. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2010. "Stock prices and the efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from a panel stationary test with structural breaks," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 49-58, January.
    25. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Izunna Anyikwa & Nicolene Haaman & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Persistence of suicides in G20 countries: SPSM approach to three generations of unit root tests," Working Papers 1825, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University.
    2. Mitch Kunce, 2022. "A 'Natural' Suicide Rate, Hysteresis or Suicide Persistence? Evidence from U.S. State-Level Panel Data, 1980-2020," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(2), pages 1-2.
    3. Cumhur ERDEM & Mehmet DİNÇ, 2022. "The Socioeconomic Determinants of Suicide: A Panel Data Analysis," Yildiz Social Science Review, Yildiz Technical University, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12.
    4. Durmuş Çağrı Yıldırım & Seda Yıldırım & Seyfettin Erdoğan & Işıl Demirtaş & Gualter Couto & Rui Alexandre Castanho, 2021. "Time-Varying Convergences of Environmental Footprint Levels between European Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-Pao Wu & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Are house prices in South Africa really nonstationary? Evidence from SPSM-based panel KSS test with a Fourier function," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 32-53, January.
    2. Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Chi Liu & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Are there housing bubbles in South Africa? Evidence from SPSM-based panel KSS test with a Fourier function," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 18(5), pages 517-532.
    3. Li, Xiao-Lin & Tang, D.P. & Chang, Tsangyao, 2014. "CO2 emissions converge in the 50 U.S. states — Sequential panel selection method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 320-333.
    4. Tolga Omay & Muhammad Shahbaz & Chris Stewart, 2021. "Is there really hysteresis in the OECD unemployment rates? New evidence using a Fourier panel unit root test," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 875-901, November.
    5. Chang, Tsangyao & Chu, Hsiao-Ping & Ranjbar, Omid, 2014. "Are GDP fluctuations transitory or permanent in African countries? Sequential Panel Selection Method," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 380-399.
    6. Chang, Ming-Jen & Su, Che-Yi, 2014. "Hysteresis versus natural rate in Taiwan's unemployment: Evidence from the educational attainment categories," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 293-304.
    7. Omay, Tolga & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Stewart, Chris, 2021. "Is There Really Hysteresis in OECD Countries’ Unemployment Rates? New Evidence Using a Fourier Panel Unit Root Test," MPRA Paper 107691, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2021.
    8. James E Payne & Junsoo Lee, 2024. "Global perspective on the permanent or transitory nature of shocks to tourist arrivals: Evidence from new unit root tests with structural breaks and factors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 67-103, February.
    9. Lee, Kuei-Chiu, 2014. "Is per capita real GDP stationary in China? Sequential panel selection method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 507-517.
    10. Murat ASLAN & Saban NAZLIOGLU, 2018. "Do International Relative Commodity Prices Support the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis? A Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Testing," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 76-92, December.
    11. He, Huizhen & Ranjbar, Omid & Chang, Tsangyao, 2013. "Purchasing power parity in transition countries: Old wine with new bottle," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 24-32.
    12. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    13. Lopez, Claude & Papell, David H., 2012. "Convergence of Euro area inflation rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1440-1458.
    14. Hanck, Christoph, 2008. "An intersection test for panel unit roots," Technical Reports 2008,11, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    15. Liu, Wen-Chi, 2013. "Reexamining the income inequality in China: Evidence from sequential panel selection method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 37-42.
    16. Wang, Xiao-Qing & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Li, Hao & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2022. "Is China's carbon trading market efficient? Evidence from emissions trading scheme pilots," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    17. Tsangyao Chang & De-Piao Tang & Wen-Chi Liu & Chia-Hao Lee, 2010. "Purchasing power parity for 15 COMESA and SADC countries: evidence based on panel SURADF tests," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(17), pages 1721-1727.
    18. Lee, Chia-Hao & Chou, Pei-I, 2013. "The behavior of real exchange rate: Nonlinearity and breaks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 125-133.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Shu-Ching Cheng & Tsung-Pao Wu, 2015. "Revisiting purchasing power parity in major oil-exporting countries," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1-2), pages 108-116, July.
    20. Durusu-Ciftci, Dilek & Ispir, M. Serdar & Kok, Dundar, 2019. "Do stock markets follow a random walk? New evidence for an old question," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 165-175.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    suicide rates; sequential panel selection method; Panel KSS Unit Root Test; Fourier function; policy implications; OECD countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2017:i:3:p:5-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.