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Rastreando la trayectoria de los precios de la quinua en Bolivia: Quiebres estructurales y persistencia de choques

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Aliaga Lordemann

    (Investigador Asociado de INESAD)

  • Ignacio Garrón Vedia

    (Investigador invitado de INESAD)

  • María Cecilia Lenis Abastoflor

    (Investigadora Junior de INESAD)

Abstract

La quinua ha experimentado una notable transformación en las últimas décadas, consolidándose como un pilar fundamental para las comunidades agrícolas andinas y emergiendo como un actor prominente en el mercado global de los súper alimentos. Sin embargo, los precios de este grano han mostrado una dinámica compleja, con grandes fluctuaciones que han impactado directamente sobre los ingresos de los pequeños productores. Esta investigación tiene como objetivo analizar la dinámica del precio de la quinua en Bolivia identificando los principales eventos y factores que han generado quiebres estructurales en su tendencia, así como también identificando la persistencia de los choques a lo largo del tiempo. Se empleó un enfoque que combina, por un lado, el análisis de quiebres estructurales por medio del contraste de Bai y Perron, y también está la estimación de la memoria larga a través del estimador 2ELW. Adicionalmente, se evaluó la influencia de variables exógenas que afectan sobre los precios. Para ello se contempló el índice de actividad mundial de materias primas, el índice oceánico de El Niño y la producción mundial de la quinua. Los hallazgos revelan múltiples quiebres estructurales en la serie de precios de la quinua que se relacionan con ciertos eventos clave. Por ejemplo, están los cambios en la investigación y el desarrollo, el auge de la producción y la comercialización, y el impulso de las iniciativas gubernamentales y de la cooperación internacional. Estos quiebres también se asocian a distintos grados de persistencia de los choques en cada régimen identificado. Si bien las variables exógenas no muestran efectos significativos a corto plazo, se reconoce que podrían tener una influencia relevante en diferentes periodos. Este estudio demuestra la complejidad en la dinámica de los precios de la quinua en Bolivia, que está caracterizada por múltiples quiebres estructurales. Para aprovechar las oportunidades en este mercado, los productores y formuladores de políticas deben implementar estrategias flexibles y de monitoreo constante de la evolución del sector, tomando en cuenta los factores clave que han impulsado los cambios en la tendencia de precios a lo largo del tiempo.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Aliaga Lordemann & Ignacio Garrón Vedia & María Cecilia Lenis Abastoflor, 2024. "Rastreando la trayectoria de los precios de la quinua en Bolivia: Quiebres estructurales y persistencia de choques," Development Research Working Paper Series 08/2024, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:adv:wpaper:202408
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    File URL: http://www.inesad.edu.bo/pdf/wp2024/wp08_2024.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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