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Granger Causality from Exchange Rates to Fundamentals: What Does the Bootstrap Test Show Us?

  • Hsiu-Hsin Ko

    (National University of Kaohsiung)

  • Masao Ogaki

We use a residual-based bootstrap method to re-examine the finding of the Granger causality relationship from exchange rates to fundamentals in Engel and West (Exchange rate and fundamentals, Journal of Political Economy 2005, 113 (3), 485–517), in which the evidence for the relation is taken as evidence for the present-value model for exchange rates. The test results are against the previous findings. The Monte Carlo experiment results suggest that the causality test implemented in the previous study tends to spuriously reject null hypotheses. Thus, the existing evidence for the present value model for exchange rates is not robust.

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File URL: http://rcer.econ.rochester.edu/RCERPAPERS/rcer_577.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER) in its series RCER Working Papers with number 577.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:roc:rocher:577
Contact details of provider: Postal: University of Rochester, Center for Economic Research, Department of Economics, Harkness 231 Rochester, New York 14627 U.S.A.

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  3. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
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  12. Ko, Hsiu-Hsin & Ogaki, Masao, 2015. "Granger causality from exchange rates to fundamentals: What does the bootstrap test show us?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 198-206.
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