IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v40y2019i2p139-160.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Informed Trading in the WTI Oil Futures Market

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Rousse
  • Benoît Sévi

Abstract

The weekly release of the U.S. inventory level by the DOE-EIA is known as the market mover in the U.S. oil futures market. We uncover suspicious trading patterns in the WTI futures markets in days when the inventory level is released that are higher than market forecasts: there are significantly more orders initiated by buyers in the two hours preceding the official release of the inventory level, with a drop in the average price of -0.25% ahead of the news release. This finding is consistent with informed trading. We also provide evidence of an asymmetric response of the oil price to oil-inventory news, and highlight an over-reaction that is partly compensated in the hours following the announcement.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Rousse & Benoît Sévi, 2019. "Informed Trading in the WTI Oil Futures Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(2), pages 139-160, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:40:y:2019:i:2:p:139-160
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.2.orou
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/01956574.40.2.orou
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/01956574.40.2.orou?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bassam Fattouh, Lutz Kilian, and Lavan Mahadeva, 2013. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    2. Berk, Istemi & Rauch, Jannes, 2016. "Regulatory interventions in the US oil and gas sector: How do the stock markets perceive the CFTC's announcements during the 2008 financial crisis?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 337-348.
    3. Domenico Ferraro & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 11-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    5. Ye, Shiyu & Karali, Berna, 2016. "The informational content of inventory announcements: Intraday evidence from crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 349-364.
    6. John, Kose & Lang, Larry H P, 1991. "Insider Trading around Dividend Announcements: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1361-1389, September.
    7. Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. "Security Analysis and Trading Patterns When Some Investors Receive Information before Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1665-1698, December.
    8. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    9. Bu, Hui, 2014. "Effect of inventory announcements on crude oil price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 485-494.
    10. Zhang, Hui Jun & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Galbraith, John W., 2016. "Exchange rates and commodity prices: Measuring causality at multiple horizons," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 100-120.
    11. Scott C. Linn & Zhen Zhu, 2004. "Natural gas prices and the gas storage report: Public news and volatility in energy futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 283-313, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel B. Snashall & Helen M. Poulos, 2023. "‘Smallholding for Whom?’: The effect of human capital appropriation on smallholder palm farmers," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 40(4), pages 1599-1619, December.
    2. Sultan Alturki & Alexander Kurov, 2022. "Market inefficiencies surrounding energy announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 172-188, January.
    3. Zhao, Wandi & Gao, Yang, 2023. "Network connectedness and the contagion structure of informed trading: Evidence from the time and frequency domains," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olivier Rousse & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," Working Papers hal-01460186, HAL.
    2. Rousse, Olivier & Sévi, Benoît, 2016. "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," ESP: Energy Scenarios and Policy 249788, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    3. Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Roberts, Helen & Lont, David H., 2017. "Crude inventory accounting and speculation in the physical oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 508-522.
    4. repec:ipg:wpaper:19 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Stanislav Anatolyev & Sergei Seleznev & Veronika Selezneva, 2021. "How does the financial market update beliefs about the real economy? Evidence from the oil market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 938-961, November.
    6. Liu, Li & Tan, Siming & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Can commodity prices forecast exchange rates?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    7. Zhang, Hui Jun & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Galbraith, John W., 2016. "Exchange rates and commodity prices: Measuring causality at multiple horizons," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 100-120.
    8. Chul-Yong Lee & Sung-Yoon Huh, 2017. "Forecasting Long-Term Crude Oil Prices Using a Bayesian Model with Informative Priors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, January.
    9. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures Trading and the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices," Working Papers halshs-00793724, HAL.
    10. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, volume 45, pages 65-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    11. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-019 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Athanasios Triantafyllou & Dimitrios Bakas & Marilou Ioakimidis, 2023. "Commodity price uncertainty as a leading indicator of economic activity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4194-4219, October.
    13. Lombardi, Marco J. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: Implications for portfolio allocation," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 45-57.
    14. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Trabelsi, Nader & Alqahtani, Faisal & Bachmeier, Lance, 2019. "Modelling systemic risk and dependence structure between the prices of crude oil and exchange rates in BRICS economies: Evidence using quantile coherency and NGCoVaR approaches," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1011-1028.
    15. Iwaisako, Tokuo & Nakata, Hayato, 2017. "Impact of exchange rate shocks on Japanese exports: Quantitative assessment using a structural VAR model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-16.
    16. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Felix Kapfhammer & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "Climate risk and commodity currencies," Working Paper 2020/18, Norges Bank.
    18. Krzysztof Drachal, 2018. "Determining Time-Varying Drivers of Spot Oil Price in a Dynamic Model Averaging Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, May.
    19. Tarek Chebbi & Waleed Hmedat, 2024. "Inventory information arrival and the crude oil futures market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1513-1533, April.
    20. Marco J. Lombardi & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2012. "Oil price density forecasts: exploring the linkages with stock markets," Working Paper 2012/24, Norges Bank.
    21. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11382 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2018. "What determines the long-term correlation between oil prices and exchange rates?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 140-152.
    23. Jacks, David S. & Stuermer, Martin, 2020. "What drives commodity price booms and busts?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Insider trading; WTI crude oil futures; Intraday data; Inventory release;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:40:y:2019:i:2:p:139-160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.