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Nonlinear adjustment in the real dollar–euro exchange rate: The role of the productivity differential as a fundamental

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  • Camarero, Mariam
  • Ordóñez, Javier

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the influence of productivity differentials in the dynamics of the real dollar–euro exchange rate. Using nonlinear procedures for the estimation and testing of ESTAR models during the period 1970–2009 we find that the dollar–euro real exchange rate shows nonlinear mean reversion towards the fundamentals represented by the productivity differential. In addition, we provide evidence about the ability of this variable to capture the overvaluation and undervaluation of the dollar against the euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Camarero, Mariam & Ordóñez, Javier, 2012. "Nonlinear adjustment in the real dollar–euro exchange rate: The role of the productivity differential as a fundamental," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 444-449.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:2:p:444-449
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.12.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Claudio, Morana, 2015. "The US$/€ exchange rate: Structural modeling and forecasting during the recent financial crises," Working Papers 321, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 28 Dec 2015.
    2. Baillie, Richard T. & Cho, Dooyeon, 2016. "Assessing Euro crises from a time varying international CAPM approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 197-208.
    3. Richard T. Baillie & Dooyeon Cho, 2016. "Assessing Euro Crises from a Time Varying International CAPM Approach," Working Paper series 16-03, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinearities; Real exchange rate; Productivity differential fundamental;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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