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Investigating effects of oil price changes on the US, the UK and Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Yasunori Yoshizaki

    (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)

Abstract

Based on the structural VAR model of the global crude oil market proposed by Kilian(2009), this article investigates the causes for wild fluctuations in oil prices since the mid-2000s. A main contribution of the study is to compare the effects of changes in oil price on three major economies, the US, the UK, and Japan. I find oil-specific demand shocks as well as aggregate demand shocks played an important role in the rise in the real price of oil since early 2002 and the subsequent sharp drops after the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.. Moreover I have found that oil-specific demand shocks increase real GDP in Japan, which is very different from the US and the UK where oil-specific demand shocks lead to reduction in real GDP. This difference possibly comes from the oil efficiency of Japanese products.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasunori Yoshizaki, 2011. "Investigating effects of oil price changes on the US, the UK and Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2641-2652.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00614
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    2. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-286, April.
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    4. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
    5. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    6. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    8. Finn, Mary G, 2000. "Perfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 400-416, August.
    9. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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