IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aiz/louvar/2022010.html

Dynamic score driven independent component analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Hafner, Christian M.

    (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium)

  • Herwartz, Helmut

Abstract

A model for dynamic independent component analysis is introduced where the dynamics are driven by the score of the pseudo likelihood with respect to the rotation angle of model innovations. While conditional second moments are invariant with respect to rotations, higher conditional moments are not, which may have important implications for applications. The pseudo maximum likelihood estimator of the model is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. A simulation study reports good finite sample properties of the estimator, including the case of a mis-specification of the innovation density. In an application to a bivariate exchange rate seriesof the Euro and the British Pound against the US Dollar, it is shown that the model-implied conditional portfolio kurtosis largely aligns with narratives on financial stress as a result of the global financial crisis in 2008, the European sovereign debt crisis (2010-2013) and early rumors signalling the UK to leave the European Union (2017). These insights are consistent with arecently proposed model that associates portfolio kurtosis with a geopolitical risk factor.

Suggested Citation

  • Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2022. "Dynamic score driven independent component analysis," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2022010, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    • Handle: RePEc:aiz:louvar:2022010
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2021.2013244
    Note: In: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://research.dial.uclouvain.be/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2021.2013244?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Helmut Lütkepohl & Till Strohsal, 2025. "Time-Varying Shock Transmission in Non-Gaussian Structural Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2110, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Herwartz, Helmut & Theilen, Bernd & Wang, Shu, 2024. "Unraveling the structural sources of oil production and their impact on CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Helmut Lütkepohl & Till Strohsal, 2025. "Revisiting Oil Supply News Shocks: Proxy vs. Non-Gaussian Structural Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2146, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aiz:louvar:2022010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alain Gillis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isuclbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.