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Who did it? A European Detective Story. Was it Real, Financial, Monetary and/or Institutional: Tracking Growth in the Euro Area with an Atheoretical Tool

Author

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  • Mariarosaria Comunale

    () (Bank of Lithuania)

  • Francesco Paolo Mongelli

    () (European Central Bank)

Abstract

During the past thirty years, euro area countries have undergone significant changes and experienced diverse shocks. We aim to investigate which variables have consistently supported growth in this tumultuous period. The paper unfolds in three parts. First, we assemble a set of 35 real, financial, monetary and institutional variables for all euro area countries covering the period between 1990Q1 and 2016Q4. Second, using the Weighted-Average Least Squares (WALS) method, as well as other techniques, we gather clues about which variables to select. Third, we quantify the impact of various determinants of growth in the short and long runs. Our main finding is the positive and robust role of institutional reforms on long-term growth for all countries in the sample. An improvement in competitiveness matters for growth in the overall euro area in the long run as well as a decline in sovereign and systemic stress. The debt over GDP negatively influences growth for the periphery, but only in the short run. Property and equity prices have a significant impact only in the short run, whereas the loans to NFCs positively affect the core euro area. An increase in global GDP also supports growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariarosaria Comunale & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2019. "Who did it? A European Detective Story. Was it Real, Financial, Monetary and/or Institutional: Tracking Growth in the Euro Area with an Atheoretical Tool," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 70, Bank of Lithuania.
    • Handle: RePEc:lie:wpaper:70
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; GDP growth; monetary policy; fiscal policy; institutional integration; financial crisis; systemic stress; synchronization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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