IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbops/2017203.html

Real convergence in the euro area: a long-term perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Diaz del Hoyo, Juan Luis
  • Dorrucci, Ettore
  • Heinz, Frigyes Ferdinand
  • Muzikarova, Sona

Abstract

In the euro area, there is mixed evidence that the GDP per capita of lower-income economies has been catching up with that of higher-income economies since the start of monetary union. The significant real convergence performance of some of the most recent members contrasts with that of the economies of southern Europe, which have not met expectations. However, attributing all the blame for this outcome to the introduction of the single currency simply misses the point. By taking a “long view” and reviewing the evidence since the 1960s, this paper shows that certain member countries began to face a “non-convergence trap” long before the euro years. We also provide stylised facts on: (i) the central role of total factor productivity in driving real convergence in the euro area over time, alongside other factors; and (ii) the crucial interaction of real convergence with “Maastricht convergence” and institutional quality, the other two key components of sustainable economic convergence. We conclude that it is critical that the euro area countries facing convergence challenges enhance the resilience of their economic structures by improving the relevant institutions and governance. JEL Classification: E01, F15, J11, O11, O43, O47, O52, O57

Suggested Citation

  • Diaz del Hoyo, Juan Luis & Dorrucci, Ettore & Heinz, Frigyes Ferdinand & Muzikarova, Sona, 2017. "Real convergence in the euro area: a long-term perspective," Occasional Paper Series 203, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2017203
    Note: 427381
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op203.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francesco Daveri & Maria Laura Parisi, 2010. "Experience, innovation and productivity. Empirical evidence from Italy's slowdown," Working Papers 1009, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    2. Philippe Aghion & Cagatay Bircan, 2017. "The Middle-Income Trap from a Schumpeterian Perspective," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 521, Asian Development Bank.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1996. "Democracy and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-27, March.
    4. Claudio BorioBy & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2017. "Rethinking potential output: embedding information about the financial cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 655-677.
    5. José Aixalá & Gema Fabro, 2008. "Does The Impact Of Institutional Quality On Economic Growth Depend On Initial Income Level?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 45-49, September.
    6. Boyle, G E & McCarthy, T G, 1997. "A Simple Measure of Beta-Convergence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 257-264, May.
    7. Mihály Borsi & Norbert Metiu, 2015. "The evolution of economic convergence in the European Union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 657-681, March.
    8. Arbia, Giuseppe & Battisti, Michele & Di Vaio, Gianfranco, 2010. "Institutions and geography: Empirical test of spatial growth models for European regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 12-21, January.
    9. Cristina Fernández & Pilar García Perea, 2015. "The impact of the euro on euro area GDP per capita," Working Papers 1530, Banco de España.
    10. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
    11. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mariarosaria Comunale & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2019. "Who did it? A European Detective Story. Was it Real, Financial, Monetary and/or Institutional: Tracking Growth in the Euro Area with an Atheoretical Tool," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 70, Bank of Lithuania.
    2. Mariarosaria Comunale & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2019. "Euro Area Growth and European Institutional Reforms," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 24, Bank of Lithuania.
    3. Mariarosaria Comunale & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2021. "Tracking growth in the euro area subject to a dimensionality problem," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(57), pages 6611-6625, December.
    4. Shamugia, Egnate, 2025. "Rule of law and economic performance: A meta-regression analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    5. Diego Aboal & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Martin Pereyra & Maria Paz Queralt�, 2020. "Regional Economic Development and Convergence Clubs in Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo 17902, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA).
    6. Azomahou, Théophile T. & El ouardighi, Jalal & Nguyen-Van, Phu & Pham, Thi Kim Cuong, 2011. "Testing convergence of European regions: A semiparametric approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1202-1210, May.
    7. Persson, Joakim, 1999. "Demographic and Per Capita Income Dynamics: A Convergence Study on Demographics, Human Capital, and Per Capita Income for the US States," Working Paper Series 156, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2021. "Divergence Tendencies in the European Integration Process: A Danger for the Sustainability of the E(M)U?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, March.
    9. Mendieta Muñoz, Rodrigo & Pontarollo, Nicola, 2015. "Cantonal Convergence in Ecuador: A Spatial Econometric Perspective," MPRA Paper 68399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Helmut Herwartz & Florian Siedenburg, 2013. "To converge or not converge: unit labor cost inflation in the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 455-467, April.
    11. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Effect of the Utilization of Non-Reciprocal Trade Preferences offered by the QUAD on Economic Growth in Beneficiary Countries," EconStor Preprints 242848, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    12. Grafström, Jonas, 2017. "An Econometric Analysis of Divergence of Renewable Energy Invention Efforts in Europe," Ratio Working Papers 295, The Ratio Institute.
    13. Mindaugas Butkus & Diana Cibulskiene & Alma Maciulyte-Sniukiene & Kristina Matuzeviciute, 2018. "What Is the Evolution of Convergence in the EU? Decomposing EU Disparities up to NUTS 3 Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-37, May.
    14. Peter Gripaios & Paul Bishop & Sarah Keast, 2000. "Differences in GDP per head in GB counties: some suggested explanations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(9), pages 1161-1167.
    15. Javier Andrés & Ignacio Hernando & J. David López-Salido, 1999. "Assessing the benefits of price stability: The international experience," Estudios Económicos, Banco de España, number 69.
    16. Zhenhui Xu & Haizheng Li, 2008. "Political freedom, economic freedom, and income convergence: Do stages of economic development matter?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 183-205, June.
    17. Wild, Joerg, 2016. "Efficiency and risk convergence of Eurozone financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 196-211.
    18. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Effects of the Utilization of Non-Reciprocal Trade Preferences Offered by QUAD Countries on Economic Growth in Beneficiary Countries," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 45(1), pages 33-68.
    19. John Nixon, 2000. "Convergence of health care spending and health outcomes in the EUropean Union, 1960-95," Working Papers 183chedp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    20. Enowbi Batuo, Michael & Fabro, Gema, 2009. "Economic Development, Institutional Quality and Regional integration: Evidence from Africa Countries," MPRA Paper 19069, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2017203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.