IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bubdps/282013.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The evolution of economic convergence in the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Borsi, Mihály Tamás
  • Metiu, Norbert

Abstract

This paper investigates economic convergence in real income per capita between 27 European Union countries. We employ a non-linear latent factor framework to study transitional behavior among economies between 1970 and 2010. Our results offer important insights on the economic catch-up exhibited by the new EU members in light of the institutional changes and macroeconomic adjustment processes undertaken over the last 40 years. Our main findings suggest no overall real income per capita convergence in the EU, however, we identify subgroups that converge to different steady states using an iterative testing procedure. Regional linkages play a significant role in determining the formation of convergence clubs. The empirical evidence suggests a clear separation between the new and old EU member states in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Borsi, Mihály Tamás & Metiu, Norbert, 2013. "The evolution of economic convergence in the European Union," Discussion Papers 28/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:282013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/80489/1/766254909.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Guetat, Imene & Serranito, Francisco, 2007. "Income convergence within the MENA countries: A panel unit root approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 685-706, February.
    3. Perez-Sebastian, Fidel, 2000. "Transitional dynamics in an R&D-based growth model with imitation: Comparing its predictions to the data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 437-461, April.
    4. Susanto Basu & David N. Weil, 1998. "Appropriate Technology and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1025-1054.
    5. Howitt, Peter & Mayer-Foulkes, David, 2005. "R&D, Implementation, and Stagnation: A Schumpeterian Theory of Convergence Clubs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 147-177, February.
    6. Goldberg, Pinelopi K. & Verboven, Frank, 2005. "Market integration and convergence to the Law of One Price: evidence from the European car market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 49-73, January.
    7. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Refet S Güürkaynak & Eric T Swanson, 2011. "Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 350-364, February.
    8. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
    9. Galor, Oded, 1996. "Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1056-1069, July.
    10. Durlauf, Steven N & Johnson, Paul A, 1995. "Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behaviour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 365-384, Oct.-Dec..
    11. Palm, Franz C. & Smeekes, Stephan & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2011. "Cross-sectional dependence robust block bootstrap panel unit root tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 85-104, July.
    12. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Doris Ritzberger-Grunwald & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2008. "Growth, convergence and EU membership," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5), pages 643-656.
    13. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1996. "The Transition at Mid Decade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 128-133, May.
    14. Luisa Corrado & Ron Martin & Melvyn Weeks, 2005. "Identifying and Interpreting Regional Convergence Clusters across Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages 133-160, March.
    15. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2009. "Economic transition and growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1153-1185.
    16. Fabio Canova, 2004. "Testing for Convergence Clubs in Income Per Capita: A Predictive Density Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 49-77, February.
    17. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "Technological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, March.
    18. Evans, Paul, 1998. "Using Panel Data to Evaluate Growth Theories," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 295-306, May.
    19. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    20. Emanuela Marrocu & Raffaele Paci & Stefano Usai, 2013. "Productivity Growth In The Old And New Europe: The Role Of Agglomeration Externalities," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 418-442, August.
    21. Lopez, Claude & Papell, David H., 2012. "Convergence of Euro area inflation rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1440-1458.
    22. Costas Megir & Danny Quah, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp0274, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    23. Azariadis, Costas, 1996. "The Economics of Poverty Traps: Part One: Complete Markets," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 449-496, December.
    24. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X., 1996. "Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1325-1352, June.
    25. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2011. "Analysing convergence in Europe using the non-linear single factor model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 343-369, October.
    26. Alberto Alesina & Vittorio Grilli, 1993. "On The Feasibility Of A One‐Speed Or Multispeed European Monetary Union," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 145-165, July.
    27. Fabio Canova & Morten Ravn, 2000. "The Macroeconomic Effects of German Unification: Real Adjustments and the Welfare State," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(3), pages 423-460, July.
    28. von Hagen, Jurgen & Neumann, Manfred J M, 1994. "Real Exchange Rates within and between Currency Areas: How Far Away Is EMU?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 236-244, May.
    29. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Convergence revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 249-265, April.
    30. Jan Svejnar, 2002. "Transition Economies: Performance and Challenges," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    31. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, July.
    32. Michael C Burda & Battista Severgnini, 2009. "TFP Growth in Old and New Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 51(4), pages 447-466, December.
    33. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M Hashem, 1999. "Stochastic Growth Models and Their Econometric Implications," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 139-183, June.
    34. Quah, Danny, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1286, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    36. Candelon, Bertrand & Kool, Clemens & Raabe, Katharina & van Veen, Tom, 2007. "Long-run real exchange rate determinants: Evidence from eight new EU member states, 1993-2003," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 87-107, March.
    37. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-1085, December.
    38. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    39. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1771-1855, November.
    40. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2004. "Nominal and real stochastic convergence of transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-36, March.
    41. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2007. "European integration, productivity growth and real convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1370-1395, August.
    42. Ramajo, Julián & Márquez, Miguel A. & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D. & Salinas, María M., 2008. "Spatial heterogeneity and interregional spillovers in the European Union: Do cohesion policies encourage convergence across regions?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 551-567, April.
    43. Alexander C‐G. Stubb, 1996. "A Categorization of Differentiated Integration," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 283-295, June.
    44. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    45. Laurent Cavenaile & David Dubois, 2011. "An empirical analysis of income convergence in the European Union," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(17), pages 1705-1708.
    46. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Sul, Donggyu, 2007. "Some empirics on economic growth under heterogeneous technology," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 455-469, September.
    47. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Regional convergence clusters across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 951-958, April.
    48. Vasco M. Carvalho & Andrew C. Harvey, 2005. "Convergence in the trends and cycles of Euro‐zone income," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 275-289.
    49. Fischer, Christoph, 2012. "Price convergence in the EMU? Evidence from micro data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 757-776.
    50. Siklos, Pierre L., 2010. "Meeting Maastricht: Nominal convergence of the new member states toward EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 507-515, March.
    51. Rogers, John H., 2007. "Monetary union, price level convergence, and inflation: How close is Europe to the USA?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 785-796, April.
    52. Juncal Cunado & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2006. "Real convergence in some Central and Eastern European countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(20), pages 2433-2441.
    53. Parente, Stephen L & Prescott, Edward C, 1994. "Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 298-321, April.
    54. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2005. "Real and nominal stochastic convergence: Are the new EU members ready to join the Euro zone?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 387-400, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cavallaro, Eleonora & Villani, Ilaria, 2021. "Real income convergence and the patterns of financial integration in the EU," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    2. Azomahou, Théophile T. & El ouardighi, Jalal & Nguyen-Van, Phu & Pham, Thi Kim Cuong, 2011. "Testing convergence of European regions: A semiparametric approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1202-1210, May.
    3. Mihaela Simionescu, 2015. "About regional convergence clubs in the European Union," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 33(1), pages 67-80.
    4. Eftychia Tsanana & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2014. "Do Balkan economies catch up with EU? New evidence from panel unit root analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 641-662, November.
    5. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah & Christian Nsiah, 2020. "Convergence in military expenditure and economic growth in Africa and its regional economic communities: evidence from a club clustering algorithm," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1832344-183, January.
    6. Massimiliano Affinito, 2011. "Convergence clubs, the euro-area rank and the relationship between banking and real convergence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 809, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2021. "Divergence Tendencies in the European Integration Process: A Danger for the Sustainability of the E(M)U?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, March.
    8. Fabio Mazzola & Pietro Pizzuto, 2020. "Great Recession and club convergence in Europe: A cross‐country, cross‐region panel analysis (2000–2015)," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 676-711, June.
    9. Sayel Basel & R. Prabhakara Rao & K. U. Gopakumar, 2021. "Analysis of club convergence for economies: identification and testing using development indices," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 885-908, October.
    10. Leone Leonida & Daniel Montolio, 2001. "Convergence and Inter-Distributional Dynamics among the Spanish Provinces. A Non-parametric Density Estimation Approach," Working Papers 2001/7, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    11. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796, Elsevier.
    12. Konrad Lyncker & Rasmus Thoennessen, 2017. "Regional club convergence in the EU: evidence from a panel data analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 525-553, March.
    13. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, July.
    14. Cieślik, Andrzej & Wciślik, Dominika Róża, 2020. "Convergence among the CEE-8 economies and their catch-up towards the EU-15," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 39-48.
    15. Cem Ertur & Julie Le Gallo & Catherine Baumont, 2006. "The European Regional Convergence Process, 1980-1995: Do Spatial Regimes and Spatial Dependence Matter?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 29(1), pages 3-34, January.
    16. Haupt, Harry & Schnurbus, Joachim & Semmler, Willi, 2018. "Estimation of grouped, time-varying convergence in economic growth," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 141-158.
    17. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2009. "Economic transition and growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1153-1185, November.
    18. Eckey, Hans-Friedrich & Türck, Matthias, 2007. "Convergence of EU-Regions. A Literature Report," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 10, pages 5-32.
    19. Fiaschi, Davide & Gianmoena, Lisa & Parenti, Angela, 2018. "Spatial club dynamics in European regions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 115-130.
    20. Li, Kui-Wai & Zhou, Xianbo & Pan, Zhewen, 2016. "Cross-country output convergence and growth: Evidence from varying coefficient nonparametric method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 32-41.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Club convergence; Dynamic factor model; Economic integration; Growth; New member states;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:282013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.