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Meeting Maastricht: Nominal convergence of the new member states toward EMU

  • Siklos, Pierre L.

This paper estimates whether the new member states (NMS) that joined the EU in 2004 have achieved a form of inflation and long-term interest rate convergence. Using quarterly data from the mid-1990s, convergence is evaluated through a series of unit root and cointegration tests. Both univariate and panel tests are performed, including tests for a large number of combinations of inflation and interest rates satisfying the Maastricht inflation and long-term interest rate criteria. It is generally found that nominal convergence in inflation has been attained among the NMS. There is, however, less evidence of convergence in long-term interest rates. Possible exceptions include Estonia and the Czech Republic and, to a lesser extent, Slovakia which has since joined the euro area. There is also a large degree of consistency between the various unit root and cointegration tests in both the univariate and panel variations.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 27 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 507-515

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:2:p:507-515
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