IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iecepo/v22y2025i2d10.1007_s10368-025-00663-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regional institutions, political volatility and their impact on productivity: a Latin American perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Seffino

    (Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires (UNCPBA)
    Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur (GEID-IIESS, UNS-CONICET))

  • Germán González

    (Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur (GEID-IIESS, UNS-CONICET)
    Universidad Nacional del Sur (UNS))

Abstract

Studies on economic integration in Latin America indicate that countries within the region encounter significant challenges in sustaining long-term growth and exhibit a marked lack of convergence with developed economies. A critical factor in this context is the quality of institutions, particularly the stability of governmental policies. This study examines the convergence of total factor productivity across 16 Latin American countries from 1980 to 2019, evaluating the impact of public policy volatility, particularly in relation to regional integration agreements. We employ econometric panel data models with corrected standard errors to ensure a robust analysis. The results indicate that high volatility is associated with greater divergence in productivity, underscoring the importance of political stability and institutional quality in promoting more balanced economic development in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Seffino & Germán González, 2025. "Regional institutions, political volatility and their impact on productivity: a Latin American perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 1-22, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:22:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s10368-025-00663-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-025-00663-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10368-025-00663-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10368-025-00663-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    3. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    4. Peter A. Petri, 2006. "Is East Asia becoming more interdependent?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    5. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2013. "Policy Volatility, Institutions, and Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 362-376, May.
    6. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A., 2005. "Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 385-472, Elsevier.
    7. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian & Álvaro José Riascos & James A. Schmitz, 2006. "Latin America in the rearview mirror," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 30(Sep).
    8. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    9. Paul Johnson & Chris Papageorgiou, 2020. "What Remains of Cross-Country Convergence?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(1), pages 129-175, March.
    10. Mr. Bas B. Bakker & Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan & Alex Ho & Vibha Nanda, 2020. "The Lack of Convergence of Latin-America Compared with CESEE: Is Low Investment to Blame?," IMF Working Papers 2020/098, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Akihiro Otsuka & Mika Goto, 2016. "Total factor productivity and the convergence of disparities in Japanese regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(2), pages 419-432, March.
    12. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2009. "Economic transition and growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1153-1185.
    13. Abramovitz, Moses, 1986. "Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 385-406, June.
    14. Adriana Di Liberto & Francesco Pigliaru & Piergiorgio Chelucci, 2011. "International Tfp Dynamics And Human Capital Stocks: A Panel Data Analysis, 1960–2003," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 57(1), pages 156-182, March.
    15. Lopez, Claude & Papell, David H., 2012. "Convergence of Euro area inflation rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1440-1458.
    16. Brian F. Crisp & Scott W. Desposato & Kristin Kanthak, 2011. "Legislative Pivots, Presidential Powers, and Policy Stability," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 426-452.
    17. Hites Ahir & Nicholas Bloom & Davide Furceri, 2022. "The world uncertainty index," CEP Discussion Papers dp1842, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    18. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
    19. Witold Jerzy Henisz, 2004. "Political Institutions and Policy Volatility," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, March.
    20. Christoph Lakner & Branko Milanovic, 2016. "Global Income Distribution: From the Fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 30(2), pages 203-232.
    21. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, June.
    22. Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira & Samuel De Abreu Pessôa & Fernando A. Veloso, 2013. "On The Evolution Of Total Factor Productivity In Latin America," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 16-30, January.
    23. Caves, Douglas W & Christensen, Laurits R & Diewert, W Erwin, 1982. "The Economic Theory of Index Numbers and the Measurement of Input, Output, and Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1393-1414, November.
    24. Robert J. Barro, 2015. "Convergence and Modernisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 911-942, June.
    25. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    26. Kojima, Kiyoshi, 1964. "The Pattern of International Trade Among Advanced Countries," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 5(1), pages 16-36, June.
    27. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1771-1855, November.
    28. J. Brandon Bolen & Claudia R. Williamson, 2019. "The Path of Reform: The Consequences of Institutional Volatility," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 400-425, August.
    29. Carlos Scartascini & Ernesto Stein & Mariano Tommasi, 2013. "Political institutions, intertemporal cooperation, and the quality of public policies," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 16, pages 1-32, May.
    30. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    31. Joachim Schnurbus & Harry Haupt & Verena Meier, 2017. "Economic Transition and Growth: A Replication," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 1039-1042, August.
    32. Blyde, Juan S., 2006. "Convergence Dynamics in Mercosur," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 784-815.
    33. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    34. Claudius Gräbner & Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller & Florian Springholz, 2021. "Understanding economic openness: a review of existing measures," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(1), pages 87-120, February.
    35. González, Germán Héctor & García-González, Juan David & Gómez-Medina, José Santiago & Corbella, Virginia Inés, 2023. "Regionalization of Latin America based on asymmetries in the absorptive capacity of countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    36. Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1997. "Growth and Convergence in Multi-country Empirical Stochastic Solow Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 357-392, July-Aug..
    37. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho, 2020. "Contagion through National and Regional Exposures to Foreign Banks during the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    38. Bertola, Luis & Ocampo, Jose Antonio, 2012. "The Economic Development of Latin America since Independence," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199662142, Decembrie.
    39. Siklos, Pierre L., 2010. "Meeting Maastricht: Nominal convergence of the new member states toward EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 507-515, March.
    40. Kinnunen, Maarit & Wood, Emma H. & Li, Yanning & Moss, Jonathan, 2022. "Self-recorded conversations in tourism memory research," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    41. repec:idb:brikps:439 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. J. Brandon Bolen & Russell S. Sobel, 2020. "Does Balance Among Areas of Institutional Quality Matter for Economic Growth?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(4), pages 1418-1445, April.
    43. Edinaldo Tebaldi, 2016. "The Dynamics of Total Factor Productivity and Institutions," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 1-25, December.
    44. Bleaney, Michael F., 1996. "Macroeconomic stability, investment and growth in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 461-477, March.
    45. Timothy J. Coelli & D.S. Prasada Rao & Christopher J. O’Donnell & George E. Battese, 2005. "An Introduction to Efficiency and Productivity Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, edition 0, number 978-0-387-25895-9, July.
    46. Jos� Antonio Ocampo & Juliana Vallejo, 2012. "Economic Growth, Equity and Human Development in Latin America," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 107-133, February.
    47. Michael Kremer & Jack Willis & Yang You, 2022. "Converging to Convergence," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 337-412.
    48. Germán Héctor González & Carlos Darío Dabús & Pablo Daniel Monterubbianesi, 2013. "Phases Of Convergence In Latin America: The Technological Drivers," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 1005-1025, October.
    49. Baumol, William J. & Nelson, Richard R. & Wolff, Edward N. (ed.), 1994. "Convergence of Productivity: Cross-National Studies and Historical Evidence," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195083903, Decembrie.
    50. Kumbhakar,Subal C. & Lovell,C. A. Knox, 2003. "Stochastic Frontier Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521666633, Enero-Abr.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Walheer, Barnabé, 2021. "Labor productivity and technology heterogeneity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Ron P. Smith, 2024. "Econometric Aspects of Convergence: A Survey," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 701-721, September.
    3. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    4. Mihály Borsi & Norbert Metiu, 2015. "The evolution of economic convergence in the European Union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 657-681, March.
    5. Sedat Alataş & Erkam Sarı, 2021. "An Empirical Investigation on Regional Disparities in Public Expenditures: Province Level Evidence from Turkey," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 217-240, November.
    6. Ngoudji Tameko, Charlie Yves & Ningaye, Paul, 2023. "New evidence on life expectancy and development: is Sub-Saharan Africa different?," MPRA Paper 117265, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Nicholas Apergis & Puja Padhi, 2013. "Health expenses and economic growth: convergence dynamics across the Indian States," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 261-277, December.
    8. Berger, Johannes, 2006. "Warum sind einige Länder so viel reicher als andere? Zur institutionellen Erklärung von Entwicklungsunterschieden," MPIfG Discussion Paper 06/6, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    9. Rosa Capolupo, 2005. "THE NEW GROWTH THEORIES AND THEIR EMPIRICS, Discussion Paper in Economics, University of Glasgow, N. 2005-04 (http://www.gla.ac.uk/Acad/Economics," GE, Growth, Math methods 0506003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Koopman, Eline & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2023. "Drivers of growth accelerations: What role for capital accumulation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    11. Daniel Oto Peralías & Daniel Oto-Peralías & Diego Romero-Ávila, 2012. "Tracing the Link between Government Size and Growth: The Role of Public Sector Quality," EcoMod2012 4015, EcoMod.
    12. Young Eun Kim & Norman V. Loayza, 2019. "Productivity Growth: Patterns and Determinants across the World," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 42(84), pages 36-93.
    13. Ruba A. Aljarallah & Andrew Angus, 2020. "Dilemma of Natural Resource Abundance: A Case Study of Kuwait," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440198, January.
    14. González, Germán Héctor & García-González, Juan David & Gómez-Medina, José Santiago & Corbella, Virginia Inés, 2023. "Regionalization of Latin America based on asymmetries in the absorptive capacity of countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    15. Joaquin Maudos & Jose Manuel Pastor & Lorenzo Serrano, 2003. "Human capital in OECD countries: Technical change, efficiency and productivity," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 419-435.
    16. Rosa Capolupo, "undated". "The New Growth Theoris and their Empirics," Working Papers 2005_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    17. Iancu, Aurel, 2007. "The Question of Economic Convergence - first part -," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(3), pages 5-18, September.
    18. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2006. "Portugal–EU Convergence Revisited: Evidence for the Period 1960–2003," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 408-418, August.
    19. Kluge, Jan & Lappoehn, Sarah & Plank, Kerstin, 2020. "The Determinants of Economic Competitiveness," IHS Working Paper Series 24, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    20. Iancu, Aurel, 2009. "Real Economic Convergence," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 090104, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:22:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s10368-025-00663-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.