IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v41y2011i2p343-369.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysing convergence in Europe using the non-linear single factor model

Author

Listed:
  • Ulrich Fritsche
  • Vladimir Kuzin

Abstract

We investigate convergence in European price level, unit labor cost, income, and productivity data over the period of 1960-2006 using the non-linear time-varying coefficients factor model proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007). This approach is extremely flexible on order to model a large number of transition paths to convergence. We find regional clusters in consumer price level data. GDP deflator data and unit labor cost data are far less clustered than CPI data. Income per capita data indicate the existence of three convergence clubs without strong regional linkages; Italy and Germany are not converging to any of those clubs. Total factor productivity data indicate the existence of a small club including fast-growing countries and a club consisting of all other countries.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2011. "Analysing convergence in Europe using the non-linear single factor model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 343-369, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:41:y:2011:i:2:p:343-369
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-010-0385-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-010-0385-4
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-010-0385-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sebastian Dullien & Ulrich Fritsche, 2007. "Does the Dispersion of Unit Labor Cost Dynamics in the EMU Imply Long-run Divergence? Results from a Comparison with the United States of America and Germany," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200702, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2009. "Economic transition and growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1153-1185, November.
    3. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Challenges of trending time series econometrics," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 401-416.
    4. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    5. Robert Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Economic Effects Of Currency Unions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 1-23, January.
    6. Barry Eichengreen, 2010. "The Breakup of the Euro Area," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 11-51, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sebastian Dullien & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Does the dispersion of unit labor cost dynamics in the EMU imply long-run divergence?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 269-295, November.
    8. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-1089, November.
    9. Stephen Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark & Robert Sonora, 1999. "Price Level Convergence Among United States Cities: Lessons for the European Central Bank," Working Papers 99-01, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & CÈdric Tille, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Welfare Effects of the Euro," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 223-242, February.
    11. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Balázs Égert & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2007. "Price Level Convergence in Europe: Did the Introduction of the Euro Matter?," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 100-113.
    12. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    13. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
      • Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
      • Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Scholarly Articles 3451299, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    14. Faia, Ester & Campolmi, Alessia, 2006. "Cyclical inflation divergence and different labor market institutions in the EMU," Working Paper Series 619, European Central Bank.
    15. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
    16. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro, 2002. "Currency Unions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 409-436.
    17. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for growth and distribution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2138, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Ignazio Angeloni & Luc Aucremanne & Michael Ehrmann & Jordi Galí & Andrew Levin & Frank Smets, 2006. "New Evidence on Inflation Persistence and Price Stickiness in the Euro Area: Implications for Macro Modeling," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 562-574, 04-05.
    19. Olivier Blanchard, 2009. "The State of Macro," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 209-228, May.
    20. Eichengreen, Barry, 2008. "Sui Generis EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 6642, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Giancarlo Corsetti, 2008. "A Modern Reconsideration of the Theory of Optimal Currency Areas," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/12, European University Institute.
    22. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-81.
    23. Emerson, Michael & Gros, Daniel & Italianer, Alexander & ,, 1992. "One Market, One Money: An Evaluation of the Potential Benefits and Costs of Forming an Economic and Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773245.
    24. Angeloni Ignazio & Ehrmann Michael, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, August.
    25. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area : a summary of the Inflation Persistence Network evidence," Working Paper Research 95, National Bank of Belgium.
    26. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, July.
    27. Ulrich Fritsche & Sarah Lein & Sebastian Weber, 2009. "Do Prices in the EMU Converge (Non-linearly)?," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200904, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    28. Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank & Altissimo, Filippo, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area: a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    29. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
    30. Wang, Zijian & Wei, Jiegen, 2004. "Structural Change, Capital’s Contribution, and Economic Efficiency: Sources of China’s Economic Growth Between 1952-1998," Working Papers in Economics 130, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 05 Apr 2004.
    31. Danny Quah, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution," CEP Discussion Papers dp0324, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    32. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    34. Fabio Busetti & Lorenzo Forni & Andrew Harvey & Fabrizio Venditti, 2007. "Inflation Convergence and Divergence within the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 95-121, June.
    35. Michael Woodford, 2009. "Convergence in Macroeconomics: Elements of the New Synthesis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 267-279, January.
    36. Quah, Danny T, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 27-59, March.
    37. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    38. Lane, Philip, 2006. "The Real Effects of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Licia Ferranna & Margherita Gerolimetto & Stefano Magrini, 2016. "The effect of immigration on convergence dynamics in the US," Working Papers 2016:27, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. Carlos Mendez-Guerra, 2017. "Heterogeneous Growth and Regional (Di)Convergence in Bolivia: A Distribution Dynamics Approach," Economia Coyuntural,Revista de temas de perspectivas y coyuntura, Instituto de Investigaciones Economicas y Sociales 'Jose Ortiz Mercado' (IIES-JOM), Facultad de Ciencias Economicas, Administrativas y Financieras, Universidad Autonoma Gabriel Rene Moreno, vol. 2(4), pages 81-108.
    3. Juan Brida & Nicolás Garrido & Francesco Mureddu, 2014. "Italian economic dualism and convergence clubs at regional level," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 439-456, January.
    4. David Sondermann, 2014. "Productivity in the euro area: any evidence of convergence?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 999-1027, November.
    5. Andrea Bonilla, 2014. "An Examination of the Convergence in the Output of South American Countries: The Influence of the Region's Integration Projects," Working Papers halshs-01069353, HAL.
    6. Sheila Chapman & Stefania Cosci & Loredana Mirra, 2012. "Income dynamics in an enlarged Europe: the role of capital regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 663-693, June.
    7. Andrea Bonilla Bolanos, 2014. "An Examination of the Convergence in the Output of South American Countries: The Influence of the Region’s Integration Projects," Working Papers 1424, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    8. Carlos Mendez & Mitsuhiko Kataoka, 2021. "Disparities in regional productivity, capital accumulation, and efficiency across Indonesia: A club convergence approach," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 790-809, May.
    9. Fousekis, Panos, 2007. "Convergence of Relative State-level Per Capita Incomes in the United States Revisited," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 37(2), pages 1-10.
    10. Cheong, Tsun Se & Wu, Yanrui, 2018. "Convergence and transitional dynamics of China's industrial output: A county-level study using a new framework of distribution dynamics analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 125-138.
    11. Azomahou, Théophile T. & El ouardighi, Jalal & Nguyen-Van, Phu & Pham, Thi Kim Cuong, 2011. "Testing convergence of European regions: A semiparametric approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1202-1210, May.
    12. Cem Ertur & Julie Le Gallo & Catherine Baumont, 2006. "The European Regional Convergence Process, 1980-1995: Do Spatial Regimes and Spatial Dependence Matter?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 29(1), pages 3-34, January.
    13. Stefano Magrini & Margherita Gerolimetto & Hasan Engin Duran, 2011. "Distortions in Cross-Sectional Convergence Analysis when the Aggregate Business Cycle is Incomplete," Working Papers 2011_07, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    14. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darne & Jean-François Hoarau, 2012. "Convergence of real per capita GDP within COMESA countries: A panel unit root evidence," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(1), pages 53-71, August.
    15. Peter Mulder & Henri Groot, 2007. "Sectoral Energy- and Labour-Productivity Convergence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 36(1), pages 85-112, January.
    16. Adolfo Maza & María Hierro & José Villaverde, 2010. "Measuring intra-distribution income dynamics: an application to the European regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 45(2), pages 313-329, October.
    17. Mendez-Guerra, Carlos, 2018. "Beta, Sigma and Distributional Convergence in Human Development? Evidence from the Metropolitan Regions of Bolivia," MPRA Paper 87627, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Epstein, Philip & Howlett, Peter & Schulze, Max-Stephan, 2003. "Distribution dynamics: stratification, polarization, and convergence among OECD economies, 1870-1992," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 78-97, January.
    19. Sebastian Dullien & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Does the dispersion of unit labor cost dynamics in the EMU imply long-run divergence?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 269-295, November.
    20. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2007. "Unit labor cost growth differentials in the Euro area, Germany, and the US: lessons from PANIC and cluster analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200703, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price level; Income; Productivity; Convergence; Factor model; European Monetary Union; E31; O47; C32; C33;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:41:y:2011:i:2:p:343-369. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.