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Analysing Convergence in Europe Using a Non-linear Single Factor Model

Author

Listed:
  • Ulrich Fritsche

    () (Department for Economics and Politics, University of Hamburg, and DIW Berlin)

  • Vladimir Kuzin

    () (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) Berlin)

Abstract

We investigate convergence in European price level, unit labor cost, income, and productivity data over the period of 1960-2006 using the non-linear time-varying coefficients factor model proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007). This approach is extremely flexible on order to model a large number of transition paths to convergence. We find regional clusters in consumer price level data. GDP deflator data and unit labor cost data are far less clustered than CPI data. Income per capita data indicate the existence of three convergence clubs without strong regional linkages; Italy and Germany are not converging to any of those clubs. Total factor productivity data indicate the existence of a small club including fast-growing countries and a club consisting of all other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2008. "Analysing Convergence in Europe Using a Non-linear Single Factor Model," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200802, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  • Handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:200802
    as

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    File URL: https://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/repec/hepdoc/macppr_2_2008.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2008
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Challenges of trending time series econometrics," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, pages 401-416.
    2. Robert Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Economic Effects Of Currency Unions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 1-23, January.
    3. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-1089, November.
    4. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, April.
    5. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-81.
    6. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, July.
    7. Lane, Philip R., 2006. "The Real Effects of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas Apergis & Christina Christou & James Payne, 2011. "Political and Institutional Factors in the Convergence of International Equity Markets: Evidence from the Club Convergence and Clustering Procedure," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, pages 7-18.
    2. Lopez, Claude & Papell, David H., 2012. "Convergence of Euro area inflation rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1440-1458.
    3. König, Jörg & Ohr, Renate, 2012. "Messung ökonomischer Integration in der Europäischen Union: Entwicklung eines EU-Integrationsindexes," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 135, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Burcu Erdogan & Vladimir Kuzin, 2009. "Testing for Convergence in Stock Markets: A Non-linear Factor Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 932, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. repec:got:cegedp:135 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Guglielmo Caporale & Burcu Erdogan & Vladimir Kuzin, 2015. "Testing stock market convergence: a non-linear factor approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, pages 481-498.
    7. Guglielmo Caporale & Burcu Erdogan & Vladimir Kuzin, 2015. "Testing stock market convergence: a non-linear factor approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, pages 481-498.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price level; Income; Productivity; Convergence; Factor Model; European Monetary Union;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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