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The Effect of Income Shocks on the Oil Price

Author

Listed:
  • Irarrazabal, Alfonso A.

    (BI Norwegian Business School)

  • Ma, Lin

    (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences)

Abstract

This paper identifies the effect of income shocks on the real price of oil. We find that for the period 1973-2016 shocks to world GDP created a response of a permanent rise in the oil price. In contrast, oil production does not correct the disequilibrium from a stable long-run equilibrium. Whereas shocks to GDP are persistent, shocks to the oil price are mostly transitory once we control for changes in world GDP and oil production. We find evidence of a structural change in the response of the oil price after 1973. We conjecture that the response of oil production is key to the differences.

Suggested Citation

  • Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Ma, Lin, 2018. "The Effect of Income Shocks on the Oil Price," Working Paper Series 9-2018, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, School of Economics and Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nlsseb:2018_009
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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