IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ekd/009007/9206.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sentiment Volatility and Bank Lending Behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Mustafa Caglayan
  • Mustafa Caglayan
  • Bing Xu

Abstract

Using a panel of commercial, co-operative and savings banks from G7 countries, we investigate whether change in sentiment and its volatility affect banks' lending behavior. Sentiment indicators, which gauge the state of the economy from the perspective of the economic agents, are widely considered as a critical component by academics, policy makers and media in the transmission of shocks into the economic activity. We also know that leading indicators usually change before the economic activities change as a whole and provide useful information on the state of the economy. Surprisingly, earlier studies have not examined the impact of the level and volatility of economic agents sentiment on banks' lending behavior. As each type of agent acts on a specific set of (imperfect) information that emanate from the state of the economy, rational inattention, or their own asymmetric goals and strategies, it is important find out whether bank managers respond to changes and variability in sentiment. To carry out our investigation, we construct a large panel of commercial, co-operative, and savings banks collected from the Bankscope database for the G7 countries including Canada, Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Japan, and the US. This database provides detailed bank-level information yet the sample size is constrained due to the fact that we seek to examine the role of Core Tier 1 capital on banks' lending. The final dataset that we employ in our analysis is comprised of more than 9,000 banks and retains bank, country and time dimensions. The analysis covers the period between 1999-2014. The investigation implements GMM and fixed effects models to test various hypotheses. We show that the changes in economic agents' sentiment and its volatility affect bank lending negatively, while the impact sizes differ across indicators. We also find that the impact of volatility effects on banks' loan growth varies at excessive levels. We highlight the role of several bank-specific characteristics in transmission of uncertainty effects on the growth of bank loans, as uncertainty affects extenuate or mitigate through them.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa Caglayan & Mustafa Caglayan & Bing Xu, 2016. "Sentiment Volatility and Bank Lending Behavior," EcoMod2016 9206, EcoMod.
  • Handle: RePEc:ekd:009007:9206
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ecomod.net/system/files/Caglayan_Xu_Sentiment_Lisbon.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matsusaka, John G & Sbordone, Argia M, 1995. "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(2), pages 296-318, April.
    2. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2003. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 178-197, April.
    3. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard & Møller, Stig Vinther, 2014. "Forecasting US recessions: The role of sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 459-468.
    4. de Haas, Ralph & van Lelyveld, Iman, 2010. "Internal capital markets and lending by multinational bank subsidiaries," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-25, January.
    5. Sapienza, Paola, 2004. "The effects of government ownership on bank lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 357-384, May.
    6. Mario Quagliariello, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' lending decisions: the case of Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 323-336.
    7. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    8. Delis, Manthos D. & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Tsoumas, Chris, 2014. "Anxious periods and bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    10. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    11. Cull, Robert & Martínez Pería, María Soledad, 2013. "Bank ownership and lending patterns during the 2008–2009 financial crisis: Evidence from Latin America and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4861-4878.
    12. Bertay, Ata Can & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2015. "Bank ownership and credit over the business cycle: Is lending by state banks less procyclical?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 326-339.
    13. Raghuram G. Rajan, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441.
    14. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    15. Puri, Manju & Rocholl, Jörg & Steffen, Sascha, 2011. "Global retail lending in the aftermath of the US financial crisis: Distinguishing between supply and demand effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 556-578, June.
    16. Allen N. Berger & Gregory F. Udell, 2002. "Small Business Credit Availability and Relationship Lending: The Importance of Bank Organisational Structure," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(477), pages 32-53, February.
    17. Uchida, Hirofumi & Udell, Gregory F. & Watanabe, Wako, 2008. "Bank size and lending relationships in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 242-267, June.
    18. Brewer, Elijah & Deshmukh, Sanjay & Opiela, Timothy P., 2014. "Interest-rate uncertainty, derivatives usage, and loan growth in bank holding companies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 230-240.
    19. Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1998. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 59-78.
    20. Tennant, David & Sutherland, Richard, 2014. "What types of banks profit most from fees charged? A cross-country examination of bank-specific and country-level determinants," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 178-190.
    21. Kearney, Colm & Liu, Sha, 2014. "Textual sentiment in finance: A survey of methods and models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 171-185.
    22. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    23. Diego García, 2013. "Sentiment during Recessions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1267-1300, June.
    24. Lepetit, Laetitia & Saghi-Zedek, Nadia & Tarazi, Amine, 2015. "Excess control rights, bank capital structure adjustments, and lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 574-591.
    25. Saghi-Zedek, Nadia & Tarazi, Amine, 2015. "Excess control rights, financial crisis and bank profitability and risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 361-379.
    26. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1343-1377, June.
    27. Leonardo Gambacorta & David Marques‐Ibanez, 2011. "The bank lending channel: lessons from the crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 135-182, April.
    28. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Sims, Eric R., 2012. "Confidence and the transmission of government spending shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 235-249.
    29. Lily Qiu & Ivo Welch, 2004. "Investor Sentiment Measures," NBER Working Papers 10794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Deven Bathia & Don Bredin, 2013. "An examination of investor sentiment effect on G7 stock market returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 909-937, October.
    31. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 1-19, January.
    32. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    33. Košak, Marko & Li, Shaofang & Lončarski, Igor & Marinč, Matej, 2015. "Quality of bank capital and bank lending behavior during the global financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 168-183.
    34. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    35. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    36. Brei, Michael & Gambacorta, Leonardo & von Peter, Goetz, 2013. "Rescue packages and bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 490-505.
    37. Brei, Michael & Schclarek, Alfredo, 2013. "Public bank lending in times of crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 820-830.
    38. Altunbas, Yener & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Marques-Ibanez, David, 2010. "Bank risk and monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 121-129, September.
    39. Martin Ruckes, 2004. "Bank Competition and Credit Standards," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 1073-1102.
    40. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Ozkan, Neslihan, 2009. "The second moments matter: The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the allocation of loanable funds," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 87-89, February.
    41. Ivashina, Victoria & Scharfstein, David, 2010. "Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 319-338, September.
    42. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1998. "Improving macro-economic forecasts: The role of consumer confidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-81, March.
    43. Iannotta, Giuliano & Nocera, Giacomo & Sironi, Andrea, 2007. "Ownership structure, risk and performance in the European banking industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2127-2149, July.
    44. Nalin Kulatilaka & Enrico C. Perotti, 1998. "Strategic Growth Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1021-1031, August.
    45. Giuliano Iannotta & Giacomo Nocera & Andrea Sironi, 2007. "Ownership structure, risk and performance in the European banking industry," Post-Print hal-00861806, HAL.
    46. Ferri, Giovanni & Kalmi, Panu & Kerola, Eeva, 2014. "Does bank ownership affect lending behavior? Evidence from the Euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 194-209.
    47. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Caglayan, Mustafa & Xu, Bing, 2016. "Inflation volatility effects on the allocation of bank loans," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 27-39.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    G7; Finance; Monetary issues;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ekd:009007:9206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Theresa Leary). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ecomoea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.