Labor income risk and asset returns
This paper shows, from the consumer’s budget constraint, that expected future labor income growth rates and the residuals of the cointegration relation among log consumption, log asset wealth and log current labor income (summarized by the variable cay of Lettau and Ludvigson (2001a)), should help predict U.S. quarterly stock market returns and explain the cross-section of average returns. I …nd that a) ‡uctuations in expected future labor income are a strong predictor of both real stock returns and excess returns over a Treasury bill rate, b) when this variable is used as conditioning information for the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM), the resulting linear factor model explains four …fth of the variation in observed average returns across the Fama and French (25) portfolios and prices correctly the small growth portfolio. The paper also …nds that about one third of the variance of returns is predictable, over a horizon of one year, using expected future labor income growth rates and cay jointly as forecasting variables.
|Date of creation:||May 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +44 (020) 7405 7686
Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Campbell, John Y, 1991.
"A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March.
- Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
- Kjetil Storesletten & Chris Telmer & Amir Yaron, 1997.
"Consumption and risk sharing over the life cycle,"
GSIA Working Papers
228, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Storesletten, Kjetil & Telmer, Chris & Yaron, Amir, 2002. "Consumption and Risk Sharing Over the Life Cycle," Seminar Papers 702, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Kjetil Storesletten & Chris I. Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2000. "Consumption and Risk Sharing Over the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 7995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985.
"The equity premium: A puzzle,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
- Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999.
"Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, 08.
- Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 7009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Weil, Philippe, 1989.
"The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
- Phillippe Weil, 1997. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Risk-Free Rate Puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1833, David K. Levine.
- Philippe Weil, 1989. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Riskfree Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 2829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
- Mark Rubinstein, 1976. "The Valuation of Uncertain Income Streams and the Pricing of Options," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 407-425, Autumn.
- Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
- William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
- Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Julliard, 2003. "Consumption Risk and Cross-Sectional Returns," NBER Working Papers 9538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ferson, Wayne E & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. " Tests of Asset Pricing with Time-Varying Expected Risk Premiums and Market Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 201-20, June.
- John Lintner, 1965. "Security Prices, Risk, And Maximal Gains From Diversification," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 587-615, December.
- Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy Simin, 2002.
"Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?,"
NBER Working Papers
9143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:4811. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (LSERO Manager)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.