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Les économistes sont-ils chartistes ou fondamentalistes ? Une enquête auprès de quatre-vingt chercheurs français

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  • Marie Bessec

Abstract

[fre] Les enquêtes auprès des cambistes se sont multipliées depuis une dizaine d’années. En revanche, il n’existe pas d’étude sur la vision universitaire du fonctionnement du marché des changes. Cet article vise à combler cette lacune. Nous avons réalisé en novembre 2002 un sondage au sein de plusieurs universités françaises. Les répondants indiquent ne pas croire en une influence des variables fondamentales à court terme. En particulier , ils rejettent l’intérêt pratique de la PPA (Parité de Pouvoir d’Achat) en courte période. En revanche, les modèles de fondamentaux retrouveraient leur utilité à moyen et long terme. La confrontation de ces résultats à ceux obtenus sur le marché des changes américain démontre que ce point de vue est peu éloigné de celui des professionnels du marché. [eng] Surveys of market participants are now widely used in the exchange-rate literature. However, there is no study of academics’ views on exchange-rate dynamics. Our paper aims to fill this gap. We conducted a survey of 80 economists in several French universities in November 2002. Most respondents do not perceive economic fundamentals as important determinants of exchange rates at short and medium horizons. In particular, PPP is not regarded as a useful concept for predicting exchange-rate movements. The consistency between these beliefs and those of foreign-exchange traders disproves conventional wisdom, which sees a wide gap between the academic view and market traders’ everyday practices.

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  • Marie Bessec, 2005. "Les économistes sont-ils chartistes ou fondamentalistes ? Une enquête auprès de quatre-vingt chercheurs français," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(3), pages 239-249.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2005_num_169_3_7022
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2005.7022
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2005.7022
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