IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gok/ijdcv1/v7y2017i2p97-118.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The asymmetric effects of oil price on economic growth in Turkey and Saudi Arabia: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach

Author

Listed:
  • Alsamara, Mouyad Kassm
  • Mrabet, Zouhair
  • Elafif, Mohamed
  • Gangopadhyay, Partha

Abstract

The immediate purpose of this paper is to examine and compare the potential asymmetric oil price effects on real GDP growth in two different countries with differing dependence on oil from the Middle East: Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Saudi Arabia is the major producer of oil in the global market while Turkey is a major user of oil from the region. How do oil price shocks impact on the economic growth of these two major economies from the Middle East? The analysis progresses in three stages: first, we offer a baseline model to explain how oil price shocks can have real effects through their impacts on inflationary expectations and relative price movements. Secondly, a linear ARDL model is tested to explore the long-run dynamics of relative prices and oil price changes. Thirdly, and most importantly, the empirical analysis employs an innovative nonlinear ARDL model proposed by Shin et al (2014) to estimate the asymmetric long and short run impacts of oil prices. The empirical findings reveal that there is a strong evidence for a stable long run relationship between real GDP, oil price and other explanatory variables. In particular, the asymmetric analysis provides significant results on the difference of the economic growth responses to both positive and negative shocks of oil price. In the case of Saudi Arabia, real GDP response to positive oil shocks is important with larger magnitude compare to the negative shock. On the other hand, real GDP in Turkey react to a positive oil price shock is lower than its react to a negative shock. Our empirical results are extremely important for policy makers regarding the oil production process to achieve sustainable economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Alsamara, Mouyad Kassm & Mrabet, Zouhair & Elafif, Mohamed & Gangopadhyay, Partha, 2017. "The asymmetric effects of oil price on economic growth in Turkey and Saudi Arabia: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 97-118.
  • Handle: RePEc:gok:ijdcv1:v:7:y:2017:i:2:p:97-118
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijdc.org.in/uploads/1/7/5/7/17570463/dec_17_art3_v2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Amano & Tiff Macklem, 1997. "Menu Costs, Relative Prices, and Inflation: Evidence for Canada," Staff Working Papers 97-14, Bank of Canada.
    2. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    3. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Inference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 1-13.
    4. Ahmad, A.H. & Moran Hernandez, Ricardo, 2013. "Asymmetric adjustment between oil prices and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from major oil producers and consumers," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 306-317.
    5. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    6. Anne-Laure Delatte & Antonia Lopez Villavicencio, 2012. "Asymmetric responses of prices to exchange rate variations. Evidence from majour economies," Post-Print hal-01410597, HAL.
    7. Zhao, Lin & Zhang, Xun & Wang, Shouyang & Xu, Shanying, 2016. "The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 101-110.
    8. Ju, Keyi & Su, Bin & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, P. & Zhang, Yuqiang, 2015. "Oil price crisis response: Capability assessment and key indicator identification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1353-1360.
    9. Delatte, Anne-Laure & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from major countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 833-844.
    10. Bohi, Douglas R., 1991. "On the macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 145-162, June.
    11. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1994. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 247-261, March.
    12. Herwartz, Helmut & Plödt, Martin, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Evidence from a statistical identification approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 30-44.
    13. Knut Anton Mork & Oystein Olsen & Hans Terje Mysen, 1994. "Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 19-36.
    14. Partha Gangopadhyay, 1996. "Reserve Bank Independence: Some Critical Insights," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 15(1), pages 20-35, March.
    15. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anis Ali, 2021. "Do Oil Prices Govern GDP and Public Spending Avenues in Saudi Arabia? Sensitivity and Trend Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 104-109.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Jungho Baek & Guimin Lu & Soojoong Nam, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of changes in crude oil prices on economic growth: New evidence from China's 31 provinces," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 328-360, June.
    3. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Çatik, A. Nazif & Önder, Özlem, 2013. "An asymmetric analysis of the relationship between oil prices and output: The case of Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 884-892.
    5. van de Ven, Dirk Jan & Fouquet, Roger, 2017. "Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 204-216.
    6. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
    7. François Lescaroux & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "On the influence of oil prices on economic activity and other macroeconomic and financial variables ," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 32(4), pages 343-380, December.
    8. Awerbuch, Shimon & Sauter, Raphael, 2006. "Exploiting the oil-GDP effect to support renewables deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2805-2819, November.
    9. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    10. Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Gokmenoglu, Korhan & Ekinci, Cagdas, 2013. "Persistence in crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-37.
    11. Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2002. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 193-208.
    12. Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY, 2013. "The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(11), pages 730-739.
    13. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    14. Ju, Keyi & Su, Bin & Zhou, Dequn & Wu, Junmin & Liu, Lifan, 2016. "Macroeconomic performance of oil price shocks: Outlier evidence from nineteen major oil-related countries/regions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 325-332.
    15. Heidari, Hassan & Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar & Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz, 2015. "How Do Different Oil Price Shocks Affect the Relationship Between Oil and Stock Markets?," MPRA Paper 80273, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Dec 2016.
    16. Sukcharoen, Kunlapath & Zohrabyan, Tatevik & Leatham, David & Wu, Ximing, 2014. "Interdependence of oil prices and stock market indices: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 331-339.
    17. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks And Stock Market Booms In An Oil Exporting Country," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(2), pages 232-254, May.
    18. Rafiq, Shudhasattwa & Sgro, Pasquale & Apergis, Nicholas, 2016. "Asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 42-50.
    19. Caraiani, Petre, 2019. "Oil shocks and production network structure: Evidence from the OECD," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    20. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata Kumar, 2015. "Asymmetric impact of crude price on oil product pricing in the United States: An application of multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 436-443.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gok:ijdcv1:v:7:y:2017:i:2:p:97-118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gipepin.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gipepin.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.